Overview2026 is a tipping point year.
It's a time of great geopolitical uncertainty. Not because there's imminent conflict between the two biggest powers, the United States and China—that isn't even a top risk, it's a red herring this year. There's not (yet, at least) a second Cold War, with a rising China remaking the global system to its own liking, the Americans and allies resisting. Nor do tensions between the United States and Russia threaten to spiral out of control despite a war raging in Europe, the result of Vladimir Putin's longstanding grievances against the US-led order.
The United States is itself unwinding its own global order. The world's most powerful country is in the throes of a political revolution.
Risk 1: US political revolution
Trump is attempting to dismantle checks on his power, capture the machinery of government, and weaponize it against his enemies, making the United States the principal source of global risk in 2026.
Risk 2: Overpowered
China is betting on electrons. The United States is betting on molecules. This year, we’ll start to see who was right.
Risk 3: The Donroe Doctrine
The Trump administration doesn’t want to be the world's policeman but intends to assert direct control over America’s own backyard.
Risk 4: Europe under siege
Europe's political center is collapsing in all three major powers at once, leaving the continent unable to fill the security vacuum left by America's retreat.
Risk 5: Russia's second front
The most dangerous front in Europe will shift from the trenches in Donetsk to the hybrid war between Russia and NATO.
Risk 6: State capitalism with American characteristics
The most economically interventionist American administration since the New Deal will pick winners and losers at a scale not seen in modern US history.
Risk 7: China's deflation trap
Beijing won’t break out of its deflationary trap this year; instead, it will keep trying to export its way out, flooding global markets with cheap goods at everyone else’s expense.
Risk 8: AI eats its users
Under pressure to generate revenue and justify sky-high valuations, some AI companies will adopt extractive business models that threaten social and political stability.
Risk 9: Zombie USMCA
North American trade will be stuck in limbo as USMCA staggers on, neither dead nor alive.
Risk 10: The water weapon
Water is becoming a loaded weapon in several of the world's most dangerous rivalries.
Red Herrings
'Tariff Man’ at large. Deglobalization. Spheres of influence. Sell America. Eurasia Group’s 2026 Red Herrings.
Country-Specific Implications
These addendums for Brazil, Canada, Europe, and Japan further illustrate how global risks play out in different parts of the world, with specific implications for governments and businesses.