Risk 4: Europe under siege

The hollowing out of Europe's political center has been a decade in the making. France, Germany, and the United Kingdom each enter the year with weak, unpopular governments under siege from the populist right, the populist left, and an American administration and state-aligned social media openly rooting for their collapse. None face scheduled general elections. Yet all three risk paralysis at best and destabilization at worst—and at least one leader could fall. The consequences won't stay contained: Europe's ability to address its economic malaise, fill the security vacuum left by America's retreat, and keep Ukraine in the fight will suffer.


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