Risk 10: The water weapon

Water is becoming the most contested shared resource on the planet. In 2026, demand pressures will intensify, the governance vacuum will deepen, and water will become a loaded weapon in several of the world's most dangerous rivalries—and a tool for non-state actors exploiting state weakness. What was a humanitarian crisis is becoming a national security threat.

The ingredients have been building for years: roughly half of humanity lives under water stress for at least one month annually; 1.8 billion people face absolute scarcity. Population growth and rapid urbanization are straining basins already overdrawn—megacities from Chennai to Mexico City and Tehran have faced "Day Zero" crises or near-misses. Water-driven displacement is accelerating. Surging energy demand is pushing countries to build hydropower dams even as the water they depend on grows scarcer. And climate change is tightening the vise: Himalayan glaciers are melting faster, monsoons are growing erratic, and droughts are deepening across South Asia and the Sahel.

There's no architecture to govern how countries share the water that remains.

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