Risk 5: Russia's second front

The most dangerous front in Europe this year will shift from the trenches in Donetsk to the hybrid war between Russia and NATO.

The fighting in Ukraine is likely to grind on in 2026, with episodic Donald Trump-brokered diplomacy and no immediate breakthrough for either side. Russia will attack to increase its territorial gains inside Ukraine and continue strikes across civilian centers; Ukraine will strike harder and deeper into Russia. But the baseline is less stable than it was in 2025. As the war enters its fourth year, Ukraine's position is deteriorating and pressure from the United States is mounting. The tail risks are growing on both ends: a weakened Ukraine forced to capitulate, or a more desperate Ukraine taking bigger gambles that cause further Russian escalation against Kyiv and its backers.

But whatever happens on the battlefield, the greatest danger this year lies elsewhere. Russia will escalate gray-zone operations against NATO, from infrastructure sabotage to airspace probes to election interference. And NATO, after years of absorbing punishment, will for the first time push back. That combination raises the odds of more frequent and dangerous confrontations in the heart of Europe.


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