President Donald Trump's administration is reviving and reinterpreting the logic of the Monroe Doctrine in its effort to assert power over the Western Hemisphere. Where the 19th-century doctrine warned external powers against encroaching in the Americas, Trump's version broadens the concept. It seeks not just to limit China, Russia, and Iran in the Western Hemisphere, but to actively assert American primacy through a mix of military pressure, economic coercion, selective alliance-building, and Trump's personal score-settling. In 2026, this posture will heighten the risk of policy overreach and unintended consequences.
The pattern crystallized in 2025: strikes on alleged drug boats, threatened military action in Colombia and Mexico, sanctions on Colombia's president and a Brazilian Supreme Court justice, pressure on Panama over canal management, new sanctions on Nicaragua and tightened restrictions on Cuba, upgraded relations with El Salvador's Nayib Bukele in exchange for deportation cooperation, a $20 billion bailout for Argentina timed to boost President Javier Milei's political fortunes, and a pardon for a former Honduran president convicted of drug trafficking by a US court.
The centerpiece is Venezuela, where a high-stakes gamble has already delivered Trump his headline win.
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