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Superforecaster Fridays: Which party will hold the chancellorship after the next German federal election?

EURASIA GROUP
10 January 2020
Superforecaster examining which party will hold the chancellorship after the next German federal election
  • The Superforecasters currently predict a 77% probability that the next chancellor will be a member of the Christian Democratic Union or the Christian Social Union following the next German election. This figure is 20 points higher than where it stood in August.
  • The Grand Coalition government, consisting of the CDU/CSU and the center-left Social Democratic Party, has been in power since the September 2017 federal elections. The terms of that government were put into question in late November of last year, when the members of the SPD elected a left-wing leadership duo who intended to negotiate changes to the coalition agreement. Some observers now speculate the coalition may fall apart, leading to early elections.
  • The Superforecasters currently assign only a 14% chance of the next chancellor being Green, down from an August high of 34%. The rise of the Greens has shaken up German politics. While the parties of Germany's Grand Coalition suffered major losses in the May 2019 European Parliament elections, the Greens almost doubled their representation; in regional elections this fall the party performed historically well. They now poll as the second strongest nationally after the CDU, and their surge has led the coalition partners to place a stronger focus on environmentally friendly policies and climate change legislation.
  • Eurasia Group's analysis is that the most likely outcome for German politics in the year ahead is that the CDU/CSU coalition with the SPD survives, and early elections are avoided (60%). We hold a 20% probability that early elections are held this year, and a 20% probability that the coalition with the SPD falls apart but that the CDU/CSU continue to govern as a minority, relying on issue-based collaboration with other parties including the SPD and Greens.
  • If early elections are held, we assess that the Greens are well positioned to significantly enhance their power, perhaps even becoming the largest party. Current polls show the CDU/CSU coalition about 7 points ahead of the Greens (28–21), versus a 2–3 point spread in August. With the current minority partner in the coalition, the SPD, polling at about 13%, forecasters are viewing a Conservative-Green coalition as the most plausible option for the next government. This reflects reservations among the mainstream parties about including the far right AfD in a CDU-led right coalition or the ex-Communist Linke in a Green-led left coalition. A conservative-green government recently took power in neighboring Austria.
To learn more, look at Politics in Pictures: a visual guide to Germany.

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 Why all eyes will be on Germany

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Each Friday, Eurasia Group clients have the opportunity to submit potential forecast questions to the Superforecaster network. Selected questions are reported back to clients each week, with periodic updates provided on previous forecast questions. Good Judgment® helps clients quantify subjective risks for better decisions. Their cutting-edge methods and network of professional Superforecasters deliver accurate and early foresight. Learn more about this forecast and Superforecasting™ techniques here.
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