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Superforecaster Fridays: Who will be the 2020 Democratic nominee for US president?

EURASIA GROUP
13 December 2019
Superforecaster examining who will be the 2020 Democratic nominee for US president
  • The Superforecasters currently predict that there is a 49% chance Joe Biden will be the Democratic Party's 2020 nominee. This is up from the 19% chance which the forecast had bottomed out at in late November, after a series of debate gaffes seemed to affect his polling numbers and Senator Elizabeth Warren looked set to steal his status as frontrunner. However, her bid took a hit after widespread criticism of her Medicare For All (M4A) plan by more moderate segments of the party.
  • The Superforecasters consider the probability of Senator Bernie Sanders' nomination odds to remain around 8% after the 2016 runner-up recovered from his medical emergency and saw a resulting bounce in polling numbers. Sanders currently registers around 18% in most nationwide surveys, strong enough to earn him second place in the polls behind Biden's roughly 29% and ahead of Warren's roughly 16%.
  • The increase in the purple line (“another candidate running”) is mostly the result of rising chances for Pete Buttigieg, who has climbed significantly in polling over the last month. Betting markets have come to appreciate the South Bend mayor, currently giving him the second best odds behind Biden of securing the nomination.
  • Eurasia Group currently projects Biden as the favorite to capture the Democratic nomination (a 35% probability), with Warren the second-most likely to win (30%). Buttigieg and Sanders are allocated 15% and 10% respectively, with the remaining 40% split between Michael Bloomberg, Andrew Yang, Amy Klobuchar, and other third tier candidates.
To learn more, view our previous superforecast of who will win the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination, look at Politics in Pictures: a visual guide to the Democratic challenge, and read Democrats face dilemma on trade ahead of 2020.

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Each Friday, Eurasia Group clients have the opportunity to submit potential forecast questions to the Superforecaster network. Selected questions are reported back to clients each week, with periodic updates provided on previous forecast questions. Good Judgment® helps clients quantify subjective risks for better decisions. Their cutting-edge methods and network of professional Superforecasters deliver accurate and early foresight. Learn more about this forecast and Superforecasting™ techniques here.
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