This week's superforecast
Who will be the 2020 Democatic nominee for US president?
For more on this, read Democrats face dilemma on trade ahead of 2020.
- The Superforecasters predict that there is a 55% chance Elizabeth Warren will be the Democratic Party's 2020 nominee. This is down from the roughly 66% probability where the forecast had hovered until the middle of October. Since then Joe Biden's and Pete Buttigieg's chances have risen on stronger polling numbers, especially in early primary states.
- The Superforecasters put Bernie Sander's chances at just 3%. Sanders currently is polling between 15-20% nationwide, putting him in third behind Warren and Biden.
- However, betting markets put Sanders' odds of success at equal or lesser than Buttigieg. Mayor Pete has turned more aggressive over the past month in a bid to rise into the first tier of candidates and pull moderate votes from Biden.
- Eurasia Group analysis puts Warren as the favorite to capture the nomination (a 40% probability), with Biden second-most likely (30%). We have a collective 30% odds on another candidate from the rest of the field.
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