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Superforecaster Fridays: When will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela?

egX
20 September 2019
This week's superforecast
When will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela?

When will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela
  • The Superforecasters currently assign a 98.1% probability that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro will not lose power before 1 January 2020, with a 1.38% probability that he will lose power between 1 October–31 December 2019 and only 0.56% probability that it will happen before the end of September 2019. The Superforecasters have become gradually more certain about Maduro's ability to remain in office after the National Assembly announced that opposition leader Juan Guaido was acting president in early January.
  • Opposition parties appear divided on how to proceed after the breakdown of Norway talks this month, with Guaido attempting to leverage international and domestic pressure while smaller opposition parties seek to continue negotiations with the government.
  • The US National Security Adviser John Bolton's exit earlier this month will likely give State Department Special Envoy Elliott Abrams more sway in negotiating with Venezuela over US sanctions policy, though any significant easing of sanctions is unlikely. Abrams will likely push for US companies to be able to keep licenses to operate in the country with an eye toward rebuilding relations should a regime change eventually happen.
  • That said, the US will continue to impose targeted sanctions, Maduro is unlikely to cede power willingly, and elites within the military and broader regime have not been given enough assurances to be compelled to abandon him. This suggests the country's political crisis is likely to drag on without resolution for the foreseeable future.
To learn more, read our previous Superforecaster Fridays on Venzuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
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Each Friday, egX clients have the opportunity to submit potential forecast questions to the Superforecaster network. Selected questions are reported back to egx clients each week, with periodic updates provided on previous forecast questions. Good Judgment® helps clients quantify subjective risks for better decisions. Their cutting-edge methods and network of professional Superforecasters deliver accurate and early foresight. Learn more about this forecast and Superforecasting™ techniques here.
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