This week's superforecast
What percentage of the vote will Golden Dawn and the Communist Party of Greece win, combined, in the next Greek parliamentary election?
- The Superforecasters assign a 73.5% probability that Golden Dawn (XA) and the Communist Party of Greece (KKE) win less than 12% of the vote combined in the 7 July Greek parliamentary election.
- Eurasia Group expects New Democracy (ND) to achieve a majority in parliament on its own. However, there is a chance that it needs to look to centrist KINAL for support. There is also an outside chance of repeat elections.
- ND's platform has focused on improving the business environment and reducing taxes for both households and firms. And while lowering taxes is a priority, it would abide by stringent post-bailout fiscal targets, using any fiscal headroom to gradually lower the tax burden. The outlook for structural reforms would improve somewhat.
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