Eurasia Group | Superforecaster Fridays: Who will be the 2020 Democratic nominee for US president?
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Superforecaster Fridays: Who will be the 2020 Democratic nominee for US president?

EURASIA GROUP
31 January 2020
Who will be the 2020 Democratic nominee for US president?
  • The Superforecasters currently predict that there is a 52% chance that Joe Biden will be nominated as the presidential candidate for the Democratic Party. This is up from 19% in mid-November 2019 but is down from the high of 63% a week ago.
  • The rise in Biden's odds come as a result of steady polling in the face of numerous challengers. Throughout the campaign so far, Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, and now Bernie Sanders became the betting markets' favorites but not the aggregate polling leader. Joe Biden started the race in first and has stayed there. This fact, coupled with the public's perception of his electability, means he remains Eurasia Group's most likely nominee at 45%.
  • Senator Bernie Sanders looks poised to perform well in both Iowa (3 February) and New Hampshire (11 February), giving him important momentum early in the process. His polling numbers have recently trended upwards; this week Eurasia Group increased his odds of securing the Democratic nomination from 20% to 30%.
  • Eurasia Group believes voters' positive perceptions of Michael Bloomberg's electability—following massive outlay on advertising—make him the moderate best positioned to benefit from a potential Biden collapse. As a result, Bloomberg's odds were adjusted from 5% to 15%, while Pete Buttigieg's chances have decreased from 15% to 5%.
To learn more, look at our previous Superforecaster Fridays: Who will be the 2020 Democratic nominee for US president? Also, look at Politics in Pictures: a visual guide to the Democratic challenge.
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Each Friday, Eurasia Group clients have the opportunity to submit potential forecast questions to the Superforecaster network. Selected questions are reported back to clients each week, with periodic updates provided on previous forecast questions. Good Judgment® helps clients quantify subjective risks for better decisions. Their cutting-edge methods and network of professional Superforecasters deliver accurate and early foresight. Learn more about this forecast and Superforecasting™ techniques here.
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