Eurasia Group | Politics in Pictures: a visual guide to US-China trade tensions

Politics in Pictures: a visual guide to US-China trade tensions

2 August 2019
US-China: Trade war escalation

US President Donald Trump on Thursday threatened by tweet to levy 10% tariffs on an additional $300 billion in Chinese imports starting 1 September. The surprise announcement came as US and Chinese negotiators wrapped up the latest round of trade negotiations in Shanghai without any tangible breakthroughs.

US-China trade stalemate persists despite multiple rounds of negotiations.

The most important issues for the near-term outlook around trade talks are the fate of Huawei and Beijing's commitment to purchase US agricultural goods. The temporary general license (TGL) granted to US firms supplying products destinated for Huawei's consumer units is set to expire on 19 August and is the next key benchmark in the US-China relationship over trade and technology.

Huawei ban threatens to undermine a potential trade truce

If the US fails to offer a lifeline to Huawei, Beijing will likely take retaliatory actions and might have little incentive to move forward with its stated plans to step up purchases of US agricultural products.

US agricultural exports slump amid trade tensions

Geo-economic risks for China

China's economic growth continues to slide, hitting a three-decade low of 6.2% in the second quarter. Chinese President Xi Jinping held two economic meetings with officials and politburo members earlier this week, without announcing major new stimulus measures.

China's GDP growth is still comfortably within Beijing's target range

Xi will soon be joined by senior leadership for the annual retreat at Beidaihe, where the agenda will focus on US-China trade and the worsening political crisis in Hong Kong. The leadership summer event will be another important near-term watchpoint as it could shed light on Beijing's approach toward the US-China stalemate and Trump's sudden escalation.

Confidence in "One Country, Two Systems" sinks to a low
LOUD WORLD. CLEAR SIGNAL. Signal is a newsletter on international affairs produced by GZERO Media four times a week. No jargon, no nonsense, no noise. Signal is a product of GZERO Media, a Eurasia Group company.