Eurasia Group | Politics in Pictures: a visual guide to China's slowing growth

Politics in Pictures: a visual guide to China's slowing growth

19 July 2019
The view from Beijing

On Monday, China released its slowest GDP growth print—6.2% year-over-year—since quarterly record keeping began in 1992. The data was not surprising; the era of rapid economic growth in China has ended.

China registers its slowest GDP growth since 1992

But while the rest of the world focused on the deceleration, Beijing was quietly comforted by the results: 6.2% growth is still firmly within China's official target range of 6–6.5% for 2019.

China's GDP growth is still comfortably within Beijing's target range

And with US-China trade tensions deepening, President Xi Jinping is likely pleased with the relatively robust growth in the face of a less supportive external environment. Absent a sharper deceleration that risks sub-6% growth, officials are unlikely to alter the current range of stimulus efforts.

China's slowing fixed asset investment growth

Slower but steady

In this context, the government will continue to support growth, although primarily to aid in China's structural transition to a consumer and services-led economy. These efforts have included targeted tax cuts, alongside a push for more household consumption, but these efforts do run the risk of increasing household debt alongside an already large stock of corporate debt.

China's household and government debt rise ad corporate debt levels off

Meanwhile, employment is the core of Chinese economic and social stability. Beijing will target stimulus toward improving labor market conditions, which have continued to deteriorate so far in 2019.

China's employment PMIs signal tougher labor market conditions

And even as policymakers try to offset the impact of US-China trade conflict, it will continue to have a material impact on private business sentiment. The odds of a speedy and lasting resolution on this front are not too encouraging.

Probability tree for Huawei and trade talks in 2019

Read about US-China in our Top Risks for 2019 report, and learn why Eurasia Group is watching Huawei closely.
Sign up now for GZERO Daily, the newsletter for anyone interested in global politics, published by GZERO Media.