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Volatile politics rattle the global economy

TIME
22 August 2019
An investor at a brokerage house in Beijing. REUTERS. An investor at a brokerage house in Beijing. REUTERS.
The economic warning signs are flashing yellow. In Germany, the UK, Italy, Brazil, and Mexico, growth has stalled. In Japan, business confidence has turned negative for the first time since 2013. China's industrial output is growing at its slowest pace in 17 years. An inverted yield curve has US economists on recession watch.

But the real uncertainty is coming from the biggest surge in decades of the kind of political volatility that is relevant to markets. Politically motivated trade fights are under way between countries that make up half the global economy—from the US and China, to the US and Europe, to South Korea and Japan. The most worrisome of these economically damaging political fights is the ongoing trade war between Washington and Beijing, which shows no signs of easing. President Trump wants to avoid any appearance of a climbdown in this fight. So does China's Xi Jinping, who must also signal strength in the growing confrontation with pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong.

There are other sources of politically induced economic trouble. The IMF noted in July that “the projected recovery in growth between 2019 and 2020 in emerging market and developing economies relies on improved growth outcomes in stressed economies such as Argentina, Turkey, Iran, and Venezuela, and therefore is subject to significant uncertainty.”

At the moment, there's little sign of recovery in any of these four countries. In Argentina, voters have turned on President Mauricio Macri ahead of October elections. His likely successor, Alberto Fernandez, may not prove as economically reckless as his choice of former President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner as running mate might suggest, but he's hardly reassuring to investors. In Ankara, embattled President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continues trying to manipulate Turkey's economy to protect his political popularity. Iran, facing renewed US sanctions, is lashing out at Europe for not helping ease its economic pain. And Venezuela's slow-motion catastrophe continues with little hope for a breakthrough to spare its people further pain.

In Asia, a bitter dispute over Japan's colonization of the Korean Peninsula from 1910 to 1945 has triggered a fight with dangerous consequences for both countries. The result is an escalating conflict between Asia's second and fourth largest economies—at a time when the US-China trade war is already weighing on both.

In Europe, the political stakes rose once again on 20 August as Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte abruptly announced his resignation. Market jitters continue, and expectations grow that far-right leader Matteo Salvini will lead the country's next government. Salvini has been much more confrontational with the EU over questions of Italy's budget, and even if the top job forces him to moderate his tough talk, the fear of market-moving political turmoil—inside Italy and between Italy and the EU—will intensify.

Finally, new Prime Minister Boris Johnson insists Britain will leave the European Union by a 31 October deadline with or without a deal on the future UK-EU relationship. His demands that the EU renegotiate the Brexit deal continue to meet strong resistance in Brussels, and indications that he might answer a no-confidence move against his government with a call for national elections after 31 October have set teeth (and markets) on edge.

A decade ago, world leaders managed to cooperate their way out of danger during the financial crisis. But in a world of “my country first,” all this political friction will make that much harder.

This article originally appeared in the 2 September, 2019 issue of TIME. For more reading on political volatility, look at Risk 1: Bad Seeds in our Top Risks 2019 report.
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Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer.
Ian Bremmer is the president and founder of Eurasia Group, the leading global political risk research and consulting firm. He is also the president and founder of GZERO Media, a Eurasia Group company dedicated to helping a broad, global audience make sense of today's leaderless world.
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