This week's superforecast
Will the Law and Justice Party (PiS) list win an absolute majority in the Sejm in Poland's next parliamentary election?
- The Superforecasters assign a 5.5% probability that the Law and Justice Party (PiS) will not win an absolute majority, down from a peak of 58.0% in mid-March of this year.
- Given the pressure from the far-right, PiS Chairman Jaroslaw Kaczynski will likely step up conservative and anti-immigration discourse, given that European Parliament elections showed that nationalist rhetoric does not cost PiS its moderate voters who are satisfied with higher welfare spending.
- The opposition may organize into three main blocs to challenge the incumbents; left-wing parties Wiosna (Spring), SLD (Democratic Left Alliance), and Razem have announced that they will run as a “party committee” called KW Lewica (Electoral Committee Left), which will only need 5% of the vote to win seats. They chose this platform after it became clear that the biggest opposition party Civic Platform (PO) would only work with the liberal Modern Party (Nowoczesna).
- PiS is likely to secure a majority come October and will maximize its appeal by extending a generous social welfare package ahead of the vote. If this victory occurs, it will represent a repeat absolute majority after the party's 235-seat performance in 2015 and will see Poland continue its current streak of Euroskepticism, nationalism, and Atlanticism.
Look at Politics in Pictures: a visual guide to European Parliament elections
and read 5 things you need to know about this week's European Parliament elections
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