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Superforecaster Fridays: Will the European Council welcome a new member?

egX
23 August 2019
This week's superforecast
By 1 April 2020, will the European Council announce formal membership negotiations with a candidate or designate a new country as a (potential) candidate for membership?

By 1 April 2020, will the European Council announce formal membership negotiations with a candidate or designate a new country as a (potential) candidate for membership?
  • The Superforecasters currently assign a 46.3% probability that the European Council will announce formal membership negotiations with a candidate or designate a new country as a (potential) candidate for membership, down from a peak of 96.3% in mid-May of this year.
  • Recent events in Italy and the United Kingdom, with the Italian coalition break-up and the end of Prime Minister Theresa May's tenure and the succession of the Boris Johnson cabinet, have resulted in a European Commission with many crucial developments on its hands. New membership proceedings have taken a backseat to the political crises occurring in two of Europe's largest nations.
  • Formal membership negotiations have been in the process for Montenegro since 2010 and Serbia since 2012. Albania and North Macedonia have been candidates since 2014 and 2005 respectively but have not yet entered the negotiation stage. Bosnia and Herzegovina applied in 2016 while Kosovo is currently considering application, pending an EU rule of law assistance mission.
  • Turkey once seemed to be the obvious choice for EU enlargement in the early 2000s, but since then, the country under the leadership of Recep Tayyip Erdogan has fallen out of favor with EU members for human rights and rule of law abuses. Turkey applied back in, but its final addition will likely not come for some time.
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