This week's superforecast
In 2019, for how many different countries will the EU reach a decision that an excessive deficit and/or debt exists?
- The Superforecasters currently assign a 30% probability the Council of the European Union will, under the Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP), reach a decision that an excessive deficit and/or debt exists for one country, as Italy's fiscal woes continue.
- The confrontation over Italy's budget has escalated. Last week the European Commission announced that a disciplinary proceeding against Italy was warranted given Italy's rising debt and the League-Five Star coalition government's minimal efforts to cut the deficit.
- League head Matteo Salvini has softened his tone on the EU, leaving Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte and Minister of Economy and Finance Giovanni Tria room to avoid a standoff. These initiatives are, however, unlikely to succeed given the weak economic outlook and Italy's fiscal constraints. An EDP procedure seems likely, although the timing is less clear cut.
- These tensions with the EU are compounded by coalition tensions. While Salvini and Five Star head Luigi Di Maio have temporarily buried the hatchet after Conte threatened to resign, Salvini's dominant position in polls (League's support is nearly twice that of Five Star, a complete reversal since the last general election) makes an early election a likely prospect but more likely in 2020.
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Each Friday, egX clients have the opportunity to submit potential forecast questions to the Superforecaster network. Selected questions are reported back to egx clients each week, with periodic updates provided on previous forecast questions. Good Judgment® helps clients quantify subjective risks for better decisions. Their cutting-edge methods and network of professional Superforecasters deliver accurate and early foresight. Learn more about this forecast and Superforecasting™ techniques here.
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