This week, the world's leaders line up to give a succession of set-piece speeches on the state of the globe, and one Mr. Donald J. Trump takes the reins of the world's only superpower.
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The Noise This Week
It is a week for speeches. Of the three that will matter most, two have been already given — Theresa May's on Brexit, Xi Jinping's at Davos — and one is still to come — Donald Trump's inaugural address.
May's speech delivered her long-telegraphed plan for taking Britain out of the EU. Given that she reads the referendum's political mandate as demanding control of borders and freedom from EU legal institutions, it was no great surprise that she outlined plans for a hard Brexit that would take the UK out of the Single Market. Now she has to execute, and not just Brussels but the Belgians get a say in how Brexit unfolds. Beyond the difficulties of securing a Brexit that works for Britons, the reality is that her vision of a new global trading regime relies on a secure Europe that consists of a consolidated European Union and an American-backed NATO — two things that are no longer givens.
Xi's speech, meanwhile, won him instant headlines declaring China the new vanguard of globalization. The most important detail of the speech was probably the simple fact that he came to Davos to give it. He spoke for nearly an hour without mentioning Trump or the United States, but the intention was clear. China wants to position itself as a force for stability and growth in an increasingly volatile world. Of course, that glosses over China's reluctanceto adopt a truly liberalized economic order at home, let alone abroad. And as we've written, China's internal politics are a significant risk this year in the run-up to the country's leadership transition in the fall.
There were common threads in Xi and May's addresses. Both leaders emphasized a view of the world that that is fundamentally about economic transactions. Xi insisted that economic globalization can somehow be separated from financial crises and refugee flows. May described a “Global Britain” that trades freely but tightly controls its laws and borders. They want a kind of de-Americanized globalization without all the values that have come with trade for the past 70-odd years: movement of money, goods and services that somehow leaves the underlying politics and culture untouched.
Another shared theme: both stressed the essential equality of nations. As Xi said, countries “are all equal members of the international community,” implicitly criticizing the Bretton Woods system that has left the U.S. with outsized authority compared to its economic and demographic weight. For May, it is an “equal partnership” with the members of the EU, which implies pulling back Brussels' influence in Westminster. Missing from both of these visions is a frank assessment of the declining influence of the state as technology empowers individuals, corporations and terrorists to shape global relationships. Despite their global visions, political leaders like Xi and May will only find it harder to execute their plans in a world where power is less concentrated with politicians.
What's more, the equality of nations will be directly challenged by the third speech. Trump's embrace of “America First” is an explicit denial that he will automatically treat other heads of state as equals. In Trump's blustering on Taiwan and the South China Sea, Beijing is already seeing the new president's willingness to employ the full spectrum of American power in the pursuit of his ends, wisely or not. Meanwhile, Trump has nominally embraced a quick trade deal with post-EU Britain, but in part that is simply because “Brexit” makes a good talking point for his conservative base. It doesn't mean he will sign a deal favorable to the U.K. He has repeatedly empowered UKIP's Nigel Farage at the expense of the actual Conservative government, and any moves to support rising euroskeptics like Marine Le Pen will only make the work of negotiating Brexit harder. Trump may choose to sound a conciliatory note on taking the presidency, but if so it will be one directed at Americans, not the world.
This is a week for words. The deeds come next.
Self-Promotion Interlude: How does Eurasia Group's Washington office prepare for the inauguration? Our Alex Gibson walks you through it.
See Us Live
Come see Ian Bremmer speak at George Washington University on February 9. Register here. Ranked: Donald Trump's Foreign Policy Contradictions
“We must as a nation be more unpredictable,” proclaimed Donald Trump in April. On the eve of his inauguration as president of the United States, he can already declare victory. There are major foreign-policy issues about which Trump has generated huge uncertainty by flatly contradicting his own policy promises. He has mused that it might be good for U.S. allies to acquire nuclear weapons, and then sworn he never said that; he has promised to ban Muslim immigrants from the U.S., and then walked it back. But that's just the beginning. Here are the top foreign policy areas set to become more unpredictable.
7. The Iran Deal. Trump has promised to take a harder line on Iran as president, declaring the 2015 nuclear agreement the “worst deal ever negotiated.” But what exactly is he planning to do about it? Last year, in a speech to an anti-Iran crowd at AIPAC, he declared, “My number one priority is to dismantle the disastrous deal with Iran.” But that threat directly contradicts his prior statements that “we have to live with” the deal. “I know it would be very popular for me to do what a couple of 'em said — 'we're gonna rip it up.'” But, he continued, “we have an agreement.” Instead, he promised, “I will police that deal.” His latest statement? “I don't want to say what I'm gonna do with the Iran deal.”
6. Climate Change. During the campaign, Trump promised bluntly: “We're going to cancel the Paris climate agreement.” But in the wake of the election, even China has managed to move to his left on climate, dryly reminding the president-elect that climate change is not a Chinese hoax, as he has tweeted. But Trump's mind is apparently not fully made up yet. In a New York Times interview, Thomas Friedman asked, “Are you going to take America out of the world's lead of confronting climate change?” Trump replied, “I'm looking at it very closely, Tom. I'll tell you what. I have an open mind to it.”
5. The Nuclear Arsenal. Trump is at his most bewildering when it comes to nukes. He has repeatedly insisted that nuclear stockpiles should be reduced, saying last week, “I think nuclear weapons should be way down and reduced very substantially.” But it's difficult to square that view with the position he took in December, when he tweeted, “The United States must greatly strengthen and expand its nuclear capability until such time as the world comes to its senses regarding nukes.” He elaborated the next day that he had no problem if that position led other countries to build up their own nuclear capabilities. “Let it be an arms race,” he reportedly told MSNBC.
4. ISIS. Here's something everyone can agree on: Trump hates ISIS. But what to do about them? Send more troops to the Middle East? Trump has indicatedhe would consider it: “I would listen to the generals, but I'm hearing numbers of 20,000–30,000.” He's also said he wouldn't. “I would knock the hell out of ISIS in some form. I would rather not do it with our troops, you understand that.” And along the way he might seize the region's oil: “I've been saying it for years. Take the oil.” Or maybe not: “We should've taken it and we would've had it. Now we have to destroy the oil.”
3. NATO. Trump has gone back and forth on whether the alliance is “obsolete,” using that term throughout the campaign, only to decide in mid-August that things had changed. “I had previously said that NATO was obsolete because it failed to deal adequately with terrorism; since my comments they have changed their policy and now have a new division focused on terror threats.” (NATO's mission has included a terror focus for years, including a decade-plus post-9/11 engagement in Afghanistan.) Now, per a weekend interview two European newspapers conducted with Trump, NATO is once more obsolete “because it was designed many, many years ago.” And yet, he said in the same interview: “NATO is very important to me.”
2. Russia. Trump has gone from 60 to zero on his relationship with Vladimir Putin, at least when he faces the press. Initially, he insisted that “I do have a relationship” with the Russian president and wondered whether Putin could be “my new best friend.” But as of last week, the relationship had apparently cooled, or so Trump explained at a press conference. “I don't know that I'm gonna get along with Vladimir Putin. I hope I do. But there's a good chance I won't. And if I don't, do you honestly believe that Hillary would be tougher on Putin than me? Does anybody in this room really believe that? Give me a break.”
1. Twitter. Trump's embrace of social media has made him the model of a post-modern messaging machine. South Korea has reportedly assigned an official just to watch Trump's tweets. And yet he can't seem to decide how he feels about it. In 2012, he declared, “I love Twitter.” But in an interview that aired Wednesday morning, he changed his tune: “I don't like tweeting.” He went back to tweeting less than an hour after the interview aired.
Hard Numbers 92 percent of North Koreans consume foreign media at least once a month, according to a recently conducted survey. The Hermit Kingdom is not hermetically sealed.
5 bridges connecting eastern Mosul to the city's western half have been destroyed by ISIS in an effort to stem the advance of Iraqi troops. Eastern Mosul has been almost entirely recaptured by government forces, but the western half will be challenging.
80 miles of border fence are being constructed by Lithuania in response to the buildup of military troops in the Russian exclave Kaliningrad. And they made the EU pay for it. (Sorry, Mexico.)
21 languages were used to repeat the phrase “Kosovo is Serbia” on Serbian train that almost spurred violent conflict this week. A poor opening gambit for the first train between the two countries in 18 years.
5 years have passed since the last West African incumbent leader contested the results of an election. The ability of West African leaders to intervene on democracy's behalf is being tested in Gambia.
Wonk Alert: Eurasia Group's Karthik Sankaran maps the possible outcomesof the next administration's economic policy mix.
Words of Wisdom
“We don't go around calling on Ohio to pull out of the United States.”
Signal is written by Matt Peterson (@mattbpete) with editorial support from Gabe Lipton (@gflipton). Don't like what you read? Feel free to yell at us on Twitter or just reply to this email.
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