Conventional wisdom holds that Donald Trump's second presidency will cause unmitigated foreign policy chaos—a doubling down of the constant clashes and unpredictability of his first term that will strain US alliances, weaken America's standing in the world, undermine international institutions that have promoted peace, and increase the chances of global conflict. In the long run, especially given the broader implications of a G-Zero world, that is likely to be true.
But not this year. Many people forget that Trump scored a number of notable foreign-policy successes in his first term, including a revitalized North American Free Trade Agreement (USMCA), the historic Abraham Accords, fairer cost-sharing among NATO members, and new and more robust security alliances in Asia. There were also no major wars under his watch other than the winding down of America's longest in Afghanistan.
There are four reasons why Trump will rack up more foreign policy wins than is appreciated.
Europe breaks
Economic malaise, security threats, and defense shortcomings meant Europe was always going to face a daunting 2025. Donald Trump's return to power will exacerbate these geopolitical and economic pressures, threatening the continent with an existential crisis that could break European unity.
This year will test the maxim that when faced with a crisis, the EU always pulls together. But just like during the Eurozone crisis, Brexit, the pandemic, and Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the EU will likely overcome—or, at a minimum, muddle through—these challenges, too.
Global energy transition stalls
The return of Donald Trump has raised anxieties in sustainability circles that the global energy transition will be thrown into reverse this year, fed by campaign promises to “drill, baby, drill” and end the “green new scam.” Other climate-skeptic candidates outside the US—for example, in Germany, Canada, and Australia—are also likely to win elections in 2025, as global decarbonization metrics still lag scientific net-zero pathways.
But the global energy transition survived the first Trump administration, and it will survive the second, too. The difference is that while in 2017 the global energy transition was just leaving the station, heading into 2025 it has reached escape velocity.
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