With the election of Donald Trump as President of the United States, “the world is heading into a profound (and longer term) geopolitical recession,” according to Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group. “A Trump presidency means the most significant hit to American power and leadership globally than any other event since the collapse of the Soviet Union.”
Eurasia Group is anticipating a peaceful transition to a Trump administration, but Washington in 2017 will be a sea change from the Obama era. According to chairman Cliff Kupchan and U.S. director Jon Lieber in a note today, “The Trump foreign policy will be a major source of market anxiety and geopolitical instability. The GOP as we knew it is over. The party will be completely reshaped by Trump's electoral victory.”
The Trump administration will create a new class of winners and losers worldwide. Here is how the key players will fare:
Said Bremmer, “There are three aspects of American leadership that will be affected by the Trump administration and the growing geopolitical recession: the United States' role as world policeman, architect of global trade, and cheerleader of global values.”
You can also find his latest article on the Trump presidency here.
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Eurasia Group is the world's leading global political risk research and consulting firm. By providing information and insight on how political developments move markets, we help clients anticipate and respond to instability and opportunities everywhere they invest or do business. Founded in 1998, the firm's name reveals its early focus on the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, but today our research platform is global. Our analysts monitor political, economic, social, and security developments in Africa, Asia, Eurasia, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, and North America. Headquartered in New York, we have offices in Washington, DC, and London, as well as on-the-ground experts and resources in more than a hundred countries. Our analysts are highly trained political scientists with extensive experience in the public and private sectors.