NEW YORK, 12 January 2009--On 13 January at 10:00AM EST, Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer and RGE Monitor Chairman Nouriel Roubini will host a conversation via conference call on the political and economic risks in the year ahead. As the world enters 2009 facing the first global recession, Bremmer and Roubini aim to identify a comprehensive view of the challenges ahead-bringing together their expertise on global politics and economics.
On 5 January, Eurasia Group released its Top Risks for 2009, in which the firm identified the key geopolitical areas to watch for global investors and market participants. The US Congress, which may enact legislative or regulatory changes that could have significant impacts on business prospects, was ranked as the #1 risk. (For more information on the Top Risks, please visit www.eurasiagroup.net.)
RGE Monitor is preparing to release its 2009 Global Outlook in mid-January, and this conversation will provide a preview of some of the key economic risks that investors need to watch.
Below are a few key points that will be addressed in the call:
-- Amid the most severe US and global recession of the postwar period, global growth is likely to be negligible in 2009. In the face of this severe global downturn and financial market stress, there will be unprecedented levels of political risk as governments increase their intervention in the economy in the hope of boosting growth.
-- In recent years, politically driven risks to markets have been most prominent in emerging markets. These countries continue to face these types of risk, but for the first time in many years, political and regulatory risk will have a dramatic impact in developed industrial democracies.
-- The United States is only halfway through a recession that started in December 2007 and will be the longest and most severe in the postwar period. President-elect Obama's economic team is first rate, cohesive, and pro-globalization-but with Democratic majorities in Congress, the risks of overregulation are significant. While a large fiscal package to support growth is a priority, the US economy cannot avoid a severe contraction that has already started. The policy response will have only a limited and delayed effect that will be felt more in 2010 than 2009.
-- Europe and Japan will both contract 2.5% in 2009. With the industrial world already in outright recession and the emerging world navigating toward a hard landing, we expect global growth to be flat (around 0%) in 2009.
To receive dial-in information for the call, please contact Ms. Alex Lloyd at [email protected]
All comments will be on the record.
About Eurasia Group
Eurasia Group is the world's leading global political risk research and consulting firm. Since 1998, we have helped clients make informed business decisions in countries where understanding the political landscape is critical. Our research analysts are trained social scientists with post-graduate degrees, extensive professional experience, and a diverse range of language capabilities. Headquartered in New York, we also have offices in Washington and London, as well as a vast network of experts around the world. For more information, please visit www.eurasiagroup.net.
About RGE Monitor
Based in New York, RGE Monitor was founded by Nouriel Roubini, former senior advisor to the U.S. Treasury and the IMF, and a professor at NYU's Stern Business School. RGE's team of economic experts deliver ahead-of-the-curve financial insights by defining key economic and strategic issues, then aggregating the best writings on all sides for an at-a-glance understanding of essential global market drivers. This intelligence, combined with our exclusive research, is delivered through a powerful website that was named one of the world's best by The Economist, Forbes, and the Wall Street Journal. For more information, please visit www.rgemonitor.com or contact our sales team at +1 212.645.0010.