The global order, characterized by an absence of leadership, stands at a turning point, argues Eurasia Group president Ian Bremmer in a new paper, produced for an international seminar series hosted by the International Monetary Fund.
In “After the G-Zero: Overcoming fragmentation,” Bremmer examines how, after two generations of increasing global interconnectedness and cooperation in economic and security relations, questions are arising regarding the popular support for both trends. For decades, the global economy – supported by the role that the IMF has played in building consensus on economic policy – grew rapidly as it became more interconnected.
Now, in the face of more mediocre economic outcomes and mounting concerns about the vulnerabilities that accompany interconnectedness, many are asking whether the benefits of globalization have been oversold.
“Emerging powers have begun creating new and alternative institutions of global governance, as their power and influence in global institutions is not keeping pace with their growing international importance and interests,” Bremmer writes. “Instead of focusing on whether this trend should be feared or welcomed, observers would do well to recognize that it will persist regardless and that there is more to be achieved by interconnectedness and cooperation than ever.”
The paper argues that the stability of the next global order depends on whether countries view it as being in their interests to cooperate and coordinate before it is too late.
“The West will have to stop abusing its dominant historic position before it is too late. And emerging powers must realize that they, too, have much to lose from a broken world. The recipe to save global governance doesn't require genius. It requires goodwill.”
This topic will form the basis of an international seminar series hosted by the IMF, featuring Bremmer, David Lipton, first deputy managing director of the IMF, and other experts.
The first event will take place at the 2016 IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings Program of Seminars in Washington on 7 October at 1:00pm EDT (5:00pm GMT). A second event will continue the conversation in Beijing, China, on 22 November, with Bremmer, Lipton, and Chinese economic and geopolitical experts.
For details about the program, registration, or the live webcast, click here
Explore the paper here