Today, Eurasia Group announces the formalization of its United States Practice to satisfy growing demand among our clients for timely, non-partisan, forward-looking analysis of US macro and sector-specific political risks.
Since 2008, Eurasia Group has deepened its investment in forecasting US risk and applying the proprietary methodology we have developed since the founding of the firm in 1998. The expansion of our existing capacity into a full practice group will build on a robust record of success in predicting the timing, scope, and scale of major US policy changes. Eurasia Group's US practice will provide clients with the tools they need to anticipate US domestic political risk and to deepen their understanding of the impact of US foreign and trade policies on every region of the world.
"Emerging markets used to be the predominant political risk story," said Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group. "But the world changed following the 2008 financial crisis and now wealthy countries are often just as risky. The centrality of the US economy to markets means increased political volatility has tremendous global ramifications. We are deepening our capabilities to help our clients stay ahead of the curve on these issues."
Head of Research David Gordon and Practice Head Sean West will lead the expanded team. US analysts Helen Fessenden, Willis Sparks, Jesse Kaplan and Michael J. Johnson, will provide comprehensive analysis of legislative events and trends, electoral dynamics, and sectoral implications. The US practice will draw upon the analytical capabilities of Eurasia Group's Global Energy and Natural Resources experts Robert Johnston and Nitzan Goldberger, and Financial Services expert Dan Alamariu.
Eurasia Group's US coverage falls into three broad categories:
1) Macro: The Campaign, the Cliff and the Curse - the three main macro stories we'll be covering in the second half of 2012 include the tightly contested 2012 presidential election, the so-called "fiscal cliff" of simultaneous tax cut expiration and spending sequestration, and what we call the "safe-haven curse" -- complacency among US lawmakers to undertake necessary structural reforms due to the US' status as a financial safe haven.
2) Marrying the Macro and Micro: Energy, Financial Services, and Housing - In the current political environment no sectoral analysis is complete without understanding how it fits into the macropolitical picture. The exploitation of new US energy resources, the future resilience of US financial firms, and the stability of the housing sector will each depend on the interplay of macro and sectoral politics.
3) Foreign and Trade Policy: America in a G-Zero World - The financial crisis underscores the reality that there is now no single power or durable alliance of powers both willing and able to accept the costs, risks and burdens that come with global leadership. Yet, the US remains a critical driver of global economic opportunity. A "pivot" toward Asia through the Trans-Pacific Partnership and military rebalancing will create a new generation of Pacific opportunities for firms and investors well placed to profit from this trend.
For a more in-depth description of our top forecasts on the election and other issues above, visit here.
"In the current environment firms and investors can't afford to simply react to Washington politics," said US practice head Sean West. "They need forward-looking, unbiased analysis to position themselves to exploit opportunities and mitigate risks."