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Eurasia Group launches Future Risks Report with AXA


16 October 2019

New York, 16 October – Eurasia Group is pleased to announce the release of a new report co-authored with AXA, the leading multinational French insurance company, which details the emerging risks that should be on the radar of every business leader and policymaker.

The report draws on AXA's annual survey of risk experts, which indicates how risk experts perceive emerging risks that could have a significant impact in the next five to ten years. These results are paired with AXA's in-house risk management capabilities and Eurasia Group's industry-leading insights on geopolitics and business for a comprehensive and unique forward-looking assessment of global risks.

The risks described in the report include emerging technological challenges, climate change, and increasing geopolitical stability. The report also notes expert fears that public authorities are unprepared to grapple with these problems.

Key findings:
  • Risks related to the natural environment are now the biggest concern of risk experts, especially physical risks stemming from a changing climate. This includes changing patterns of extreme weather events such as floods, storms, and rising sea levels.
  • Cybersecurity risks such as the shutdown of essential services and critical infrastructure, extortion and ransomware, identity theft, misinformation and loss of media independence, and loss of privacy have the potential to transform existing economic and social structures.
  • A “digital iron curtain” between the US and China may be emerging and could result in distinct technological ecosystems for 5G devices, driverless cars, and the free flow of data. This would raise costs for businesses as they contend with new logistical and regulatory complexities.
  • Relations between traditional allies underpinning global governance are breaking down, and an alternative international political and economic architecture is gradually taking shape. This will lead to more fragmented global governance, an increase in geopolitical tail risks, and a reduced ability to respond effectively to major international crises when they hit.
  • Although only 5% of respondents selected a medical risk as a top emerging risk, changing patterns of infectious diseases and disruption of supply chains in medicine pose new challenges for governments unprepared to respond.
The full report is available for download here.

“Eurasia Group brings unparalleled analysis and understanding of the global risk environment to AXA's deep insights and experience working with companies to manage business risk,” said Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group. “Working together, we have produced not just a compelling think piece on risk, but a framework for thinking and acting to manage that risk.”

“I am very proud of the launch of this report which offers a snapshot of the forecasted state of the world at large. Anticipating and understanding risks is precisely what insurance is all about. With societies undergoing profound and accelerated changes, our mission has never been so crucial. We are especially proud to enrich the vision provided in the report by collaborating with Eurasia Group.” said Thomas Buberl, CEO of AXA.

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Eurasia Group is the world's leading global political risk research and consulting firm. By providing information and insight on how political developments move markets, we help clients anticipate and respond to instability and opportunities everywhere they invest or do business. Our expertise includes developed and developing countries in every region of the world, specific economic sectors, and the business and investment playing fields of the future. With our best-in-class advisory and consulting offerings and GZERO Media, the Eurasia Group umbrella provides the marketplace with a complete political risk solution. Headquartered in New York, we have offices in Washington DC, London, San Francisco, Brasilia, Sao Paulo, Singapore, and Tokyo, as well as on-the-ground experts and resources in more than a hundred countries. "Politics first” grounds our work: Politics is the lens through which we view the world, and we are committed to analysis that is free of political bias and the influence of private interests.
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