Eurasia Group is proud to announce a new innovation to our analytical products: Political Trajectories.
The trajectories-expressed as positive, negative, or neutral-represent Eurasia Group's bottom-line take on how politics will impact the macro business environment within a specific country over time. More than 70 countries are now assigned two trajectories-short-term (six months) and long-term (24 months)-included in a wide range of Eurasia Group research products.
"No other tool like this exists in the marketplace," said Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group. "The political trajectories offer a unique guide for clients to manage their political risk exposure and strategic planning. Trajectory changes will be an instant signal that politics is causing a meaningful shift in the economic and business environment of a country."
The trajectories are based on a proprietary framework developed by Dan Alamariu, Director of Product Development, and Mark Rosenberg, Africa Director, with significant inputs from the firm's senior management.
Our analysts determine outlooks for each country's government strength, social stability, security, economic policy and investment policy-and then evaluate their impact on the country's economic and investment climate.
Taking the current state of the business environment as a starting point, analysts evaluate the forward-looking impact of politics on that environment. A country with a very negative investment and operating environment, for example, could have a positive trajectory if we see policies and politics moving in a more constructive direction. Alternatively, a country with a favorable macro business environment could have a negative trajectory if we anticipate that policies and politics will have a less positive impact. Trajectories, therefore, do not compare one country's business environment with another's; rather, they compare how politics will affect changes to one country's economic and investment climate over the specified time frames. Trajectories can be updated any time the analyst expects that political changes in the country will have a significant net impact on the macro business environment.
"Eurasia Group is continually working on driving innovation in the field of political risk analysis, and this is a big step that brings our analysis closer to the markets," said Eurasia Group Chief Executive Officer Robert Johnston. "I'm confident that this change will provide our clients with a clear and concise summary of our analytic take on important developments inside a given country to help them navigate their business and investment environments with greater confidence."