Following the inauguration of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO), we chat this week with Eurasia Group's lead Mexico analyst,
Carlos Petersen.
AMLO was elected earlier this year with voters demanding sweeping changes to Mexican politics. Markets have since treated AMLO's victory with caution but contrary to sentiment, Carlos feels AMLO's tenure will not upend decades of prudent macroeconomic policy and central bank independence. The real risks stem from the issues AMLO has expended his political capital on thus far including social spending, infrastructure and corruption. Mexico watchers should expect meaningful changes there.
On energy policy, his administration will not walk back previous auctions, but has planned to pause any new deep water bid rounds. His approach to security is expected to be more heavy handed with the formation of the National Guard, and voters have stressed the need for drastically improved security in the face of ever increasing violence.
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