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Superforecaster Fridays: Which party will win the 2020 US presidential election?

EURASIA GROUP
14 February 2020

Eurasia Group and Good Judgment Inc.'s Superforecasters look at which party will win the 2020 US presidential election.

The Superforecasters currently predict that there is a 61% chance that the Republican nominee will win the United States' presidential election come November. This figure is up from its 48% mark of 24 January and has steadily increased over the last few weeks.
The odds of a Republican winning in 2020 went up as incumbent President Donald Trump had arguably the best period of his presidency. Last week he was acquitted by the Senate in the impeachment trial over his handling of Ukraine aid, gave a State of the Union speech centered on the continued success of the American economy and stock market, and watched the Democratic Party flounder at the Iowa caucuses, the first step to finding his ultimate opponent in this fall's general election.
Another aggregating factor contributing to increased Republican odds is the improved polling numbers and electoral support for Senator Bernie Sanders, who is now considered by betting markets to be the candidate most likely to secure the Democratic nomination. The general opinion on Wall Street is that Bernie Sanders would have significant negative effects on the US financial market, however based on the new records set by the S&P 500 nearly every day over the last two weeks, it seems his theoretical chances against Trump, who is perceived to be more market friendly, are not being taken very seriously.
Eurasia Group believes the conventional wisdom that the incumbent would easily win reelection if Sanders were the Democratic nominee is misplaced; not only would any Democratic candidate be competitive in such a polarized environment, but Sanders's anti-system credibility would be a significant asset in the general election. Eurasia Group currently assesses the probability of Trump winning reelection at 60% and should Sanders win the nomination, the president's odds would increase only marginally.

To learn more, look at our complete 2020 US election coverage.

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Each Friday, Eurasia Group clients have the opportunity to submit potential forecast questions to the Superforecaster network. Selected questions are reported back to clients each week, with periodic updates provided on previous forecast questions. Good Judgment® helps clients quantify subjective risks for better decisions. Their cutting-edge methods and network of professional Superforecasters deliver accurate and early foresight. Learn more about this forecast and Superforecasting™ techniques here.

Superforecaster Fridays: Which party will win the 2020 US presidential election?

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