This week's superforecast
Before 1 December 2020, will Russia deliver an S-400 missile system to Turkey?
- The Superforecasters currently assign a 48% probability that Russia will deliver an S-400 missile system to Turkey and that Turkey will achieve initial operating capability before 1 December 2020.
- The odds of Russia delivering the missile system have increased in the past weeks as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan shows little to no signs of backing down. Erdogan claimed on 18 May that the missile system would not pose a threat to US F-35 fighter jets (their delivery is scheduled for November 2019). Since S-400s will most likely be manned by Russian technicians in the early stages, giving Russia data-gathering capacities on the F-35, the claim seems unfounded.
- Erdogan seems bent on building strong relations with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, especially as Russia has become a central actor in the resolution of the Syrian conflict. Yesterday, Erdogan urged Putin to work toward a ceasefire in Idlib. In addition, with the upcoming Istanbul election re-run on 23 June, Erdogan will not want to back down.
- If Turkey goes through with its S-400 purchase, it will face severe retaliation from the US. The F-35 sale woud be canceled while the US would likely slap Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) sanctions, too. These sanctions would hit the Turkish military hard and strain its already tense relations with NATO. To avoid these sanctions, it seems unlikely Erdogan will back down, but could gain time by postponing the S-400 delivery.
SUBSCRIBE TO GZERO DAILY
Sign up now for GZERO Daily, the newsletter for anyone interested in global politics, published by GZERO Media.
Each Friday, egX clients have the opportunity to submit potential forecast questions to the Superforecaster network. Selected questions are reported back to egx clients each week, with periodic updates provided on previous forecast questions. Good Judgment® helps clients quantify subjective risks for better decisions. Their cutting-edge methods and network of professional Superforecasters deliver accurate and early foresight. Learn more about this forecast and Superforecasting™ techniques here.
Interested in learning more about egX and Good Judgment's joint executive education trainings and custom research? Contact us at
[email protected].
