Eurasia Group | Superforecaster Fridays: Italian snap election
Back

Superforecaster Fridays: Italian snap election

egX
12 July 2019
This week's superforecast
Before 31 December 2020, will Italy hold a snap general election?

Superforecaster projecting the likelihood of Italy holding a snap general election before 31 December 2020.
  • The Superforecasters assign a 53.3% probability that Italy will not hold a snap election before 31 December 2020.
  • This week League was hit by the publication of a recording of League representatives with Russian officials discussing funding to the party ahead of the European election. It seems unlikely the scandal will have much of an impact on Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini's standing. Previous corruption scandals had hardly dented the party's appeal. Furthermore it is unclear an agreement was actually finalized, and there is no proof of Salvini's involvement.
  • Coalition tensions seem to have receded in the past weeks after months of tense confrontations. Despite the Russian funding scandal, the Five Star Movement is wary of triggering the collapse of the government after receding in polls. The center-left Democratic Party has now overtaken the Five Star Movement in polls.
  • Ultimately the coalition is unstable and is unlikely to survive the next 12 months given the imbalance between League and Five Star. The upcoming budget negotiations will likely heighten tensions as parties will be under pressure from the EU and from markets to reduce the deficit.
SUBSCRIBE TO GZERO DAILY
Sign up now for GZERO Daily, the newsletter for anyone interested in global politics, published by GZERO Media.
Superforecaster logo.
Each Friday, egX clients have the opportunity to submit potential forecast questions to the Superforecaster network. Selected questions are reported back to egx clients each week, with periodic updates provided on previous forecast questions. Good Judgment® helps clients quantify subjective risks for better decisions. Their cutting-edge methods and network of professional Superforecasters deliver accurate and early foresight. Learn more about this forecast and Superforecasting™ techniques here.
egX and Good Judgment advertisement.
Interested in learning more about egX and Good Judgment's joint executive education trainings and custom research? Contact us at [email protected].
publications_detail.inc
Searching...