Back

Superforecaster Fridays: Russia and US nuclear arms control treaty

egx
8 February 2019

This week's superforecast
Will formal negotiations between Russia and the United States on a new nuclear arms control treaty or an extension/modification of an existing nuclear arms control treaty begin before 1 October 2019?

The Superforecasters currently assign a 91.7% probability that there will be no negotiations on a new or modified nuclear arms control treaty between the US and Russia before 1 October 2019.
Last week, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced that the US will formally withdraw from the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces treaty (INF) within six months and will suspend compliance in the meantime. Russia followed suit by also suspending the treaty this past week and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced plans to create new land-based missile systems within the next two years.
The US administration hinted that it would withdraw from the INF treaty in late October, on the grounds that Russia had violated the treaty, which forbids signatories from testing or deploying ground-based ballistic or cruise missiles with a range of 500-5,000 kilometers. Russia continues to deny the accusation. Since then, the Superforecasters' conviction has been steadily rising that there will be no new negotiations on a new treaty or a revision of the current treaty. While it is possible that the US announcement of withdrawal was intended as the beginning of a negotiation period between the US and Russia, this appears increasingly unlikely as the current US administration (and National Security Advisor John Bolton in particular) is fundamentally opposed to bilateral arms control treaties with Russia.
The impact of the likely US withdrawal from the INF will be felt primarily over the long-term and marks an important structural shift by the Trump administration away from the rules-based international order. Any future discussions on arms control will be complicated by near-term reactions and changes in strategy to the US's planned exit from the treaty. The breakdown of the treaty will lead to changes in defense spending and strategies for Russia and China, as well as proposals for new missile systems from the US as well. The placement of such missile systems, particularly in the Pacific theater, may further aggravate military tensions between the US and its allies and China.

Each Friday, egx clients have the opportunity to submit potential forecast questions to the Superforecaster network. Selected questions are reported back to egx clients each week, with periodic updates provided on previous forecast questions. Good Judgment® helps clients quantify subjective risks for better decisions. Their cutting-edge methods and network of professional Superforecasters deliver accurate and early foresight. Learn more about this forecast and Superforecasting™ techniques here.

Interested in learning more about egX and Good Judgment's joint executive education trainings and custom research? Contact us at [email protected]