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Superforecaster Fridays: UK referendum vote or snap election

egx
4 January 2019

This week's forecast
Before 30 March 2019, will the UK set a date for a referendum vote on its relationship with the EU or a snap general election?

The Superforecasters currently assign a 73% probability that the UK will not set a date for a snap election nor a second referendum before the current Article 50 negotiations expire just before 30 March 2019. The odds of a second referendum being agreed before that date have risen slightly to 17.3%, while the odds of a snap general election remain lower at 8%.
Although UK Prime Minister Theresa May currently faces a parliamentary gridlock on Brexit, the Superforecasters do not expect that a second referendum or a snap general election will be determined before the current Article 50 negotiations expire. Both a referendum and a snap general election would likely be accompanied by an extension of the Article 50 negotiation, but it is unlikely that an extension to the Article 50 process would be agreed without a major shift in UK politics like an election, a referendum or a change of leadership to break the current impasse.
A second referendum or a snap general election could introduce even more uncertainty into the Brexit process and would further delay a definitive outcome. While some options such as a decision to remain in the EU following a second referendum would likely be viewed as market positive, either process could also yield more negatives outcomes such as a change in government or further deadlock in the Brexit negotiations process.

Each Friday, eg x clients have the opportunity to submit potential forecast questions to the Superforecaster network. Selected questions are reported back to eg x clients each week, with periodic updates provided on previous forecast questions. Good Judgment® helps clients quantify subjective risks for better decisions. Their cutting-edge methods and network of professional Superforecasters deliver accurate and early foresight. Learn more about this forecast and Superforecasting™ techniques here.

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