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Superforecaster Fridays: Extension of Article 50

egx
11 January 2019

This week's forecast
What will happen next with regard to the UK's invocation of Article 50?

The Superforecasters currently assign a 50.4% probability that the UK and the EU will extend the Article 50 negotiations as both sides fail to agree on a Brexit deal before the current deadline at 11pm on 29 March 2019.
While the European Court of Justice (ECJ) recently ruled that the UK could unilaterally revoke the Article 50 process to stay in the EU, the Superforecasters only give a 4.7% probability that the UK would do so before the current 29 March deadline. The probability that neither of the above happens before 30 March 2019 currently stands at 44.93%, implying that the UK and the EU would have agreed on a deal, or the UK would have fallen into a “no deal” scenario.
This week's developments in the UK Parliament have marked a setback for Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal, with MPs approving measures to curtail the government's spending power in case of a no-deal scenario and to force May to offer a “Plan B” within three sitting days of the probable defeat of her Brexit deal scheduled for a Commons vote on Tuesday, 15 January. May's “Plan B” remains unclear, with her cabinet split between a second referendum and a managed “no deal” scenario.
Although May has not publicly ruled out a “no deal” scenario—in part to motivate MPs to back her deal—she would likely table plans to try to avoid such an outcome. The two more realistic “Plan B” options, including a Norway Plus model and a second referendum, would likely entail an extension of Article 50 negotiations and potentially further uncertainty for businesses around the Brexit process.

Each Friday, eg x clients have the opportunity to submit potential forecast questions to the Superforecaster network. Selected questions are reported back to eg x clients each week, with periodic updates provided on previous forecast questions. Good Judgment® helps clients quantify subjective risks for better decisions. Their cutting-edge methods and network of professional Superforecasters deliver accurate and early foresight. Learn more about this forecast and Superforecasting™ techniques here.

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