SIGNAL: Trump’s Syria strike, Russia’s response, Xi Jinping in Mar-a-Lago

This week, Donald Trump becomes a war president with strikes in Syria and finally wins the respect of the blob, all while Xi Jinping is visiting.

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Here we go!

The Noise This Week

Donald Trump can now clearly differentiate himself from his predecessor on foreign policy: he is a president willing to use military force to send a message. The message from last night's cruise missile strikes in Syria was that Trump is willing to disregard Russian concerns and take lives to secure what he sees as U.S. interests, in this case deterring the use of chemical weapons. Because it was intended as a message rather than a military campaign, the limited strike is not, for the moment, likely to be followed by deeper escalation in Syria. Similarly, this decision does not per se put the U.S. “at war” in Syria, since the U.S. has been deeply involved in the Syrian conflict since the Obama presidency. It either was already or isn't yet at war, depending on your political persuasion.

Domestically, Trump can expect a rally-round-the-flag effect, with many Never Trumpers coming out in support of the attack. (For the attack: Bill Kristol, Hillary Clinton. Against: Nigel Farage, Alex Jones.) In Syria, the attack may complicate the war against ISIS, which relied at least on not actively clashing with Syria, while giving the U.S. a role in negotiations with Assad that it did not have under Obama. Although the move was clearly telegraphed to avoid harming Russians directly, Moscow has made a show of posturing against the attack, insisting that all Syrian chemical weapons were already destroyed. The U.S. is already holding their feet to the fire on that question.

For better or worse, the U.S. strike will also dim the spotlight on the Mar-a-Lago Summit with Chinese president Xi Jinping. Even Trump's latest awkward handshake with a world leader went largely unremarked on. And if North Korea was not the key topic before, it certainly will be now. Trump now goes into his next day of talks with his air of unpredictability restored, an attitude that surely won't be lost on a North Korean regime that believes nuclear weapons are the essence of its survival. But 15 years since George W. Bush included North Korea in the “axis of evil,” the question is whether a renewed willingness to use force will change anything in China's structural relationship with North Korea. At least Trump and Xi will have plenty to talk about today.



Briefly, other big moves this week happened in Latin America. Venezuela revealed the stress points within Nicolas Maduro's ruling Chavismo movement. The Supreme Court, closely aligned with Nicolas Maduro's presidency, seized and then gave back the opposition-controlled legislature's governing powers. And in Ecuador, Lenin Moreno won a narrow victory to succeed Rafael Correa as president. The question to draw from Venezuela's experience — not to mention Brazil's — is whether the head of a movement can pass on his legacy to his chosen successor. Moreno has promised to expand Correa's social-welfare spending, but economic circumstances are challenging, and his 2-point margin of victory doesn't give him much of a mandate. Not that a lack of mandate has ever slowed down any president in the Americas.

Self-Promotion Interlude: EG's Willis Sparks and Hani Sabra discuss Sisi's visit to DC.

 

Over/Under

Overrated story of the week: No, the U.K. isn't going to war with Spain over control of Gibraltar, despite exhaustive tabloid headlines. The real story is the vast range of issues that Brexit touches on — including Britain's land borders with other states, as in Gibraltar — and the difficulty of engaging 27 stakeholders at once. But the only casualties in this fight will be the lawyers, thank goodness.
 
Underrated story of the week: Somali pirates are back! After years of leaving commercial vessels alone, pirates off the coast of Somalia have attacked four ships in the past three weeks. The international naval operation will be able to “raise costs” for pirates again, but fundamentally, the situation on land hasn't changed. Weak governance and persistent violence in Somalia means continuing externalities for its neighbors.

Hard Numbers
 
100,000 Scots have joined the Scottish National Party since the failed independence referendum in 2014, quadrupling the party's size.
 
65 percent of Russians surveyed by the Levada Center reported corruption as “absolutely intolerable.” Alexei Navalny picked his issue well.
 
15,000 people per day have fled Mosul since the Iraqi operation to retake the city from ISIS began in October.
 
4,113 minutes of television coverage were given to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and officials from his Justice and Development Party in the first three weeks of March, according to TRT Haber. The opposition CHP and HDP parties received 216 and 1 minutes, respectively, during the same period.
 
250,000 British cats and dogs could be left in limbo after Brexit if their pet passports are suddenly invalidated. This tweet says it all.

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Words of Wisdom

“The Syrian Army has no chemical weapons.”

– The Kremlin's official response to the U.S. strikes on Syria, in case there was any ambiguity in how they'd react to being called out by the U.S. attack.

Signal is written by Matt Peterson (@mattbpete) with editorial support from Gabe Lipton (@gflipton). Don't like what you read? Feel free to yell at us on Twitter or just reply to this email.