This week, Theresa May decides to supersize Europe's election supercycle, France's indecision makes the rest of the world nervous, Venezuela gets even more tense and Turkey's Erdogan wastes no time resting on his laurels after his referendum win.
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Here we go!
The Noise This Week
We go in-depth on Britain below, but first: France's vote on Sunday encapsulates the political uncertainty of this volatile era. As voters go to polls with security on their minds after yesterday's terror attack, four wildly different candidates are all polling close to one another. Two in particular, Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Melenchon, are frightening markets with their proposals to significantly change France's relationship with the European Union. Nonetheless, the most likely outcomes remain, first, a second-round win by former Economy Minister Emmanuel Macron, followed by the less likely but entirely possible victory for the far-right Le Pen. A win for Le Pen would produce major turbulence as investors react to just the idea of her policy agenda becoming a reality. Yet she would be constrained by a National Assembly presumably controlled by her opponents. Macron, who created a new party, En Marche!, out of whole cloth, would be less at odds with France's political structures. But after the tenure of the historically unpopular President Francois Hollande, in which employment remained high and growth anemic, it's uncertain whether Macron could garner enough consensus to deliver on his agenda. In a year of campaigns and controversial figures, explaining outcomes will turn on the institutions politicians inherit once they take up the job of governing.
Meanwhile in Venezuela, the opposition's inability to effect change through government institutions is forcing a dangerous confrontation on the streets. Although President Nicholas Maduro's opponents control the legislature, it has been crippled by Maduro and his chavista allies, who control the timing of elections and have managed to keep up payments to their external creditors. And yet, the chorus from observers is: “This time is different.” How that difference manifests is the great question, but for the time being, Maduro is still in charge, or as he puts it, “Here we are, governing, governing, governing!” His opponents will keep protesting, protesting, protesting. Economic conditions aren't going to get better. Something's got to give. It might be soon. But it might also take years.
Also still governing: Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose long-sought victory in in last weekend's referendum promises to make him more powerful but no less insecure. Purges have continued while the president's domestic opponents deny the legitimacy of his victory. He is at least spared one adversary, however, with the U.S. president overriding his State Department to congratulate Erdogan on his victory. Remember, Donald Trump wants something from Turkey: acceptance of the involvement of Syrian Kurdish forces in the fight against Raqqa, a subject the two heads of state discussed on that congratulatory call. And Erdogan wants Futellah Gulen extradited from the U.S. So long as the two can deal, they're likely to continue to get along. His visit to Washington in May will feel like a victory lap.
Where deals remain difficult, however, is between the U.S. and North Korea. Both sides managed to whip up a media frenzy last week without the fundamental dynamics of the crisis changing. This is a story that is going to be with us for a while, despite routine spikes in temperature over gripping but largely unfalsifiable stories like possible U.S. cyber offensives against the North Korean missile program. Factors to watch include not only the reaction in China, but also the reaction in South Korea, where American maneuvering has become a factor in the presidential race. Overall, the crisis remains dangerous and prone to accidental escalation. But it's not quite as fast-moving as the recent media cycle would suggest. And that frees up time for us to continue to make fun of Kim Jong Un's weird fashion choices.
Spot the Difference: European Elections
It's easy to lump together Europe's elections as one big reaction to populism. But, despite a smattering of supranationalism, elections in Europe remain local affairs. Here's a quick guide to the key factors differentiating the three main upcoming votes in Europe.
France Chooses a President
Why are they voting now? The regular electoral calendar mandated it.
Is an incumbent running? No, President Francois Hollande was eligible but made the momentous but unsurprising decision to drop out due to low poll numbers.
How is the leadership chosen? Nation-wide vote for the individual officeholder, divided into a two-round run-off, with a big group in the first round narrowed down to two finalists in the second.
How likely is a game-changer? Reasonably likely, if either the far right (Marine Le Pen) or far left (Jean-Luc Melenchon) wins. And if Macron wins, the president will be a man who created his own party a year ago.
How are establishment parties faring? Poorly. Hollande's dismal approval has weakened the Socialists, while the center-right Republicans have found themselves with a flawed standard bearer in Francois Fillon, who is under investigation for corruption allegations.
United Kingdom Chooses a Prime Minister
Why are they voting now? Prime Minister Theresa May saw an opportunity to solidify her political position ahead of the regular voting schedule and to lock in her mandate to proceed with Brexit.
Is an incumbent running? Yes, but May won the top job after her predecessor resigned in the wake of the Brexit vote. This will be her first general election as party leader.
How is the leadership chosen? The largest party in parliament picks a government, sometimes in a coalition.
How likely is a game-changer? Very unlikely. May's Conservatives are all but certain to retain if not increase their majority. Labour, which would traditionally be her major opponent, is divided and has resisted calls to make the vote a second referendum on Brexit.
How are establishment parties faring? Mixed. The Tories continue their political dominance, but Labour is experiencing what looks like a generational political collapse, while the Liberal Democrats appear unlikely to make significant gains.
Germany Chooses a Chancellor
Why are they voting now? The regular election calendar mandated it.
Is an incumbent running? Yes, Angela Merkel is seeking a fourth term.
How is the leadership chosen? The majority picks a government, usually in a coalition.
How likely is a game-changer? It's highly unlikely that one of the less mainstream parties, particularly media-friendly nationalists like the Alternative for German, will win. But it's entirely possible that Merkel will lose her chancellorship. After so many years in office, that would be a big change. But if she lost, it would be to Martin Schulz, a center-left former European Union official who would represent less of a contrast compared to that between Marine Le Pen and Francois Hollande.
How are establishment parties faring? Well. Merkel and Schulz lead the two main parties, the Christian Democratic Union and the Social-Democratic Party. The two have traded control of the government for decades, and are in fact currently heading the country's coalition government.
Britain In-Depth: Why Theresa May Called an Early Election, by EG's Mujtaba Rahman.
June will be good to May.
Prime Minister Theresa May has called for early snap elections, to be held on June 8. The vote will be a referendum on May's vision for Brexit.
Why call elections now?
A jumpstart on the opposition While the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party (SNP) will likely fight hard for an anti-Brexit platform, May knows that Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party is in historically weak position. May's chances of expanding the party's majority in Parliament are strong and she knows she will never have a weaker Labour opposition than is currently the case under Corbyn. And there is a small window of opportunity to strengthen her mandate at home before the Article 50 negotiations begin in earnest.
Shores up support at Westminster There was not a majority in the Houses of Commons or Lords for a hard Brexit. But if May secures a bigger majority, she will have that popular mandate. The growing prospect of a soft Brexit alliance forming between pro-EU Tories, Labour, the Lib Dems and SNP will likely be demolished in one fell swoop.
Unity is the Tories' best weapon. Pro-EU Tory MPs will not defy May's line during the election. They are therefore much less likely to fight for a soft Brexit once she has won an election. The Lords, however, will still have a soft Brexit majority. Peers will pressure the prime minister, but without backing in the Commons the unelected second chamber won't have much sway.
A stronger hand in EU negotiations European Union leadership will arguably also have to treat the British prime minister with more respect — not someone who, as Nicola Sturgeon recently reminded May, had never won an election as leader. As for timing, May's ability to get the election out of the way will allow her to negotiate a transitional deal with EU leaders without the political pressures of another election.
This makes a cliff-edge scenario, one in which Britain leaves the EU without a deal on future trade relations, less likely.
17 Mexican state governors from the past decade are either in jail, under investigation, or on the run. Two ex-governors hiding in Italy and Guatemala were arrested this week.
72 percent of Iranians believe the nuclear deal hasn't improved their standard of living, according to a recent survey. Tough news for pro-deal President Hassan Rouhani, though one of his antagonists, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, was barred from running this week.
5,000 men from Pakistan's security forces will be deployed to Saudi Arabia as part of a plan to create a Saudi-led anti-ISIS coalition, seen as in opposition to Iran.
7 simultaneous political rallies were held this week by the leftist French presidential candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon: one in person, six by hologram. If he's going to pull off an upset victory Sunday, his voters may need holograms, too.
Two chemical attacks have been conducted by ISIS in western Mosul in recent days.
Words of Wisdom
“You only have to spread a lie long enough before it becomes the truth.”
— Frauke Petry, the former leader of Germany's nationalist AfD party, who stepped aside this week amid party acrimony.
Signal is written by Matt Peterson (@mattbpete) with editorial support from Gabe Lipton (@gflipton). Don't like what you read? Feel free to yell at us on Twitter or just reply to this email.
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