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The Geopolitics of AI

Eurasia Group
August 2023

Artificial intelligence is the new frontline of innovation, opportunity, and growth, but it wields enormous power to upend our geopolitical systems, undermine governance structures, and disrupt the way we live our lives in lasting and irreversible ways.

Here at Eurasia Group, we are leading the charge on exploring AI from a geopolitical lens. The emerging “technopolar order”, as described by our founder and president Ian Bremmer, will be shaped and accelerated by AI. Join us below as we wrestle with the complexities and paradoxes of AI, analyze the trends, and look ahead to the future…which is already here.

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The AI Power Paradox

Published in the September / October 2023 issue of Foreign Affairs by Ian Bremmer and Mustafa Suleyman

It's 2035, and artificial intelligence is everywhere. AI systems run hospitals, operate airlines, and battle each other in the courtroom. Productivity has spiked to unprecedented levels, and countless previously unimaginable businesses have scaled at blistering speed, generating immense advances in well-being. New products, cures, and innovations hit the market daily, as science and technology kick into overdrive.

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Go Deeper

5 Principles for AI Governance

Governments around the world are awakening to the challenges posed by artificial intelligence, but their attempts to shoehorn AI into existing governance frameworks will fail. A policy challenge as unusual and pressing as governing AI demands an original solution that shares some of the characteristics that make this technology such a powerful force in the first place.

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3 Governance Regimes for AI

Technoprudential governance of artificial intelligence requires at least three overlapping governance regimes for different aspects of AI, each with different mandates, levers, and participants. While novel in design, all three regimes would be guided by common principles and inspired by existing policy arrangements:

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Explanations

Technopolarity

“Technopolarity” refers to an emerging world order in which the largest technology companies rival nation-states as the primary players in international affairs. It differs from traditional notions of global power in that sovereignty and influence are determined not by physical territory and military might but by control over data, algorithms, and servers.

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Technoprudentialism

“Technoprudentialism” refers to an approach for governing emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence that aims to identify and mitigate systemic risks to global stability posed by these technologies before they occur, without choking off innovation and the opportunities that flow from it. It seeks to strike a judicious balance in managing AI's power paradox as a technology that is simultaneously too powerful to easily govern but also too beneficial to reflexively ban.

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Learn more

Governing AI Before It's Too Late

In this special report for GZERO Media, Ian Bremmer and Mustafa Suleyman, CEO and co-founder of Inflection AI, join GZERO's publisher Evan Solomon to take a deep and critical look at where AI is today and where it is going.

The Next Global Superpower Isn't Who You Think

Who runs the world? That's the subject of Ian Bremmer's recent TED Talk our (three!) new world orders – with a focus on the digital world order – and what that means for policy makers, citizens, and our democracy.

How the World Must Respond to the AI Revolution

The surging development of AI will produce medical breakthroughs and become the most powerful engine for prosperity in history. But the risks and challenges are becoming clear too, and now is the time to understand and address them.

Building blocks for AI governance

Governing AI will be among the international community's most difficult challenges in the coming decades. As important as the imperative to regulate AI is the imperative to regulate it correctly.