Downward growth revisions for Sub-Saharan Africa over the past year have tended to highlight the continued impact of external stimuli on the sub-region. The IMF's latest revision cut growth estimates by 1.3 percent to just 3 percent for 2016 – well below the global average in a region which arguably requires rapid growth more than anywhere else. However, what these revisions hide is not only the diversity in growth across the sub-region (oil economies tend to be larger and weigh on the average, for instance) but also the impact that policy has had on growth over the last few years.
Sub-Saharan Africa should, of course, never be considered as a single market. The current situation highlights how varied economic structures, institutional capacities and policy, responses interact during economic storms. A trifecta of external shocks has hit the economies of Sub-Saharan Africa – a fall in the price of commodities, slowdown in emerging markets, and continued uncertainty in developed markets.
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The Cipher Brief
