Brazil’s Lula falls to sweeping anticorruption purge

The arrest of former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, a giant of the Latin American left, was a historic event by any metric. But more than anything, it underscored the strength of a backlash against a Brazilian political class largely perceived to be corrupt and ineffective, driven by an independent judiciary and ascendant middle class.
 

The septuagenarian politician known as Lula surrendered himself to authorities late Saturday, ending a tense 24-hour stand-off following the lapse of a deadline to begin serving his prison sentence. A few days earlier, the country's supreme court had rejected Lula's petition to remain free while he continues to appeal a conviction for corruption and money laundering in upper courts.

A polarizing figure in today's Brazil, Lula has insisted his prosecution is directed by conservative forces trying to keep him from running for president again in October. His supporters and critics have been holding dueling demonstrations. In a rare incursion into politics, Army Chief Eduardo Villas Boas said on the eve of the court ruling that the military “repudiates immunity,” a statement interpreted to mean Lula should go to prison.

The heightened tensions, however, do not bode a political crisis. Instead, Lula's arrest is evidence institutions are working. The country is in the midst of a historic purge of its political class led by an independent judiciary; the judges and prosecutors have the overwhelming support of a newly empowered middle class that is demanding better public services and more official accountability.
 

It is possible that Lula could be released from prison in the coming months, as the supreme court has signaled it is leaning toward changing its stance on serving prison sentences during the appeals process. But Lula's presidential bid is likely to be disallowed regardless because his corruption conviction was upheld by an appeals court. Meanwhile, he is a defendant in six other criminal cases.

In the near term, Brazil is likely to experience further political fragmentation. Lula's loyal base of support in the northeast of the country has given him a consistent lead in presidential polling with the backing of about 35% of the electorate, but that will not be easily transferable to an alternative candidate from his Workers' Party. And his ineligibility will allow the other key leftist candidate, Ciro Gomes, to fish in Lula's traditional voting base. The leftist vote will be divided in this year's elections.

More broadly, the ranks of all the major political parties have been decimated by the corruption probes; the political class will seek regeneration with new faces, and outsider candidates will have their best shot in years.

For Lula, the recent events represent a stunning reversal of fortunes. A charismatic former labor organizer with just a fourth-grade education, he served as the country's president for two terms from 2003 to 2011, a period that coincided with buoyant commodity prices that lifted emerging market economies around the world. Lula rolled out expansive cash-transfer social programs credited with helping to lift millions out of poverty. Barack Obama once referred to him as “the world's most popular politician.” 

But economic boom turned to bust a few years after Lula left office, partly aided by economic mismanagement, and prosecutors started digging deep into the influence-peddling schemes that funded the campaigns of major political parties. A burgeoning middle class that had benefited from Lula's policies of the previous decade began demanding that corruption be combated in the political sphere. Paradoxically, one of Lula's greatest successes helped set the stage for his downfall and that of many other political leaders of all stripes.