Research Highlights
Letter from Washington (in Japanese)
Letter from Washington
33年前の今月、パーレビ国王がイランを逃がれ、世界的な激動の年が幕を開けた。その年、つまり1979年の暮れまでに、イランはイスラム共和国へと転身し、ソビエト連邦はアフガニスタンを侵略、共産国であったはずの中国は鄧小平の指揮のもと資本主義への道を辿り始めた。一方、西洋諸国では、石油市場が混乱をきたす中、マーガレット・サッチャーが英国で初勝利を収めて四期連続の保守党政権時代の始まりを告げた。米国では、イランとの果て無き対立によりジミー・カーター政権が修復不能なダメージを受けて、やがて米国の政治的議論を根底から変えてしまうことになるレーガン革命への道を開いた。
Nikkei interviews Ian Bremmer on Eurozone crisis (in Japanese)
日本経済新聞に、「崖っぷちユーロ 危機を脱するか」と題して、イアン・ブレマーのインタビューが掲載されました。（2011年12月4日掲載）果たしてユーロは持続可能なのか、危機を脱することはできるのか。ユーロ圏の意思決定メカニズムの欠陥を指摘しつつ、今後の方向性を語ります。
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PORTUGAL: A default is not on the cards, but medium-term risks remain
25 January 2012: S&P's recent downgrade of Portuguese sovereign debt to "junk" status and the ongoing talks on a private sector involvement (PSI) deal in Greece are increasing the perception that Portugal might not be able to avoid a default. This concern has not damaged the government's standing, however. The recent agreement with a major union will make the adoption of labor reform, one of the most crucial structural changes required by the EU/IMF troika, much easier. The government has also made important progress toward satisfying the economic adjustment program. However, existing problems in controlling public expenditure and the country's gloomy economic prospects will put more pressure on the government before the end of the year.
LIBYA: Protests in Benghazi presage new problems for the NTC
24 January 2012: Protests at the headquarters of the ruling National Transitional Council (NTC) provide a glimpse of the current Libyan political environment and the difficulties facing a transitional administration attempting to meet popular expectation of a rapid transfer to an elected government. Violence during an escalating series of protests culminated in a riot during which protesters broke into the NTC building and ransacked offices. A leading NTC member has since resigned. This is likely to become a pattern as popular impatience is exacerbated by the sometime high-handed and autocratic manner in which the NTC is operating. Popular discontent is happening against a background of continuing militia activity. Although so far the oil and gas industry has been able to achieve remarkable results in recovering output levels, this progress is increasingly likely to be hampered by political tensions and the poor security environment.
HUNGARY: EU/IMF strategy has wielded results, but focus remains narrow and could backfire
24 January 2012: This afternoon's meeting between PM Orban and Commission President Barroso in Brussels will mark the end of a concerted charm offensive by the government regarding a potential EU/IMF financing arrangement. Given the IMF's more limited mandate, the EU's institutions have been leading the conversation: the European Court of Justice's (ECJ) infringement procedure, which insists on the revision of three pieces of legislation deemed incompatible with EU law before formal negotiations begin, alongside the potential suspension of Hungary's cohesion funds and voting rights, speaks to this. However, only central bank governance, judicial reform and data protection are addressed by the ECJ, while any suspension of cohesion funds would not bite until 2013. The European Parliament's use of Article 7 is not a credible near-term threat. Furthermore, much of Fidesz's political centralization measures have not been captured under this umbrella. Orban's agenda is and remains more ambitious than simply governing; attempting to arrest it with a narrowly focused legalistic approach is unlikely to prove successful. Lastly, the strategy may also backfire: once a program is agreed (which remains our basecase) market discipline will fade and the EU/IMF will be blamed for imposing unpopular correction policies and the impact these will have on the medium term growth outlook. The pro-Fidesz demonstrations last Saturday provide a sign of things to come: while near term policy may soon improve, the groundwork for a much bigger fight is being laid in the medium term.
BRAZIL/OIL: Gracas Foster appointment is a net positive for Petrobras
23 January 2012: Brazil's national oil company announced today, January 23, that CEO Jose Sergio Gabrielli will be stepping down from his post and will be replaced by the director of Gas and Energy Maria das Gracas Foster. In contrast to Gabrielli, Gracas Foster has a very close and longstanding working relationship with President Dilma Rousseff. While Foster's proximity to Rousseff means Petrobras is unlikely to butt heads with the government when its corporate interests run at odds with government priorities, Foster is probably better positioned in comparison to Gabrielli to defend the company's interests behind closed doors precisely because of her proximity to the President.
PAKISTAN/Supreme Court: Early elections only solution to PPP's conflict with judiciary over President Zardari's corruption cases
20 January 2012: Prime Minister Gilani appeared before the Supreme Court on January 19 to respond to charges related his government's refusal to reopen corruption cases against President Zardari. Gilani maintained his government's position that President Zardari enjoys immunity from prosecution; therefore it has not taken action on the court's orders. The court adjourned the hearing until February 1. While many believe the military is playing a heavy hand in guiding the judicial proceedings, and Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry has a personal vendetta against Zardari, more institutional factors are also at play, with the judiciary intent on proving its independence from the government. As a result, the court will push the issue over the next few weeks to its limits, given that the statute of limitations on the cases expires in April. However, after Senate elections in early March, the court will have less impetus to rock the boat, as the government will begin preparing for transition with the expected announcement of Presidential/ National Assembly elections in October.
GUATEMALA: Cautiously optimistic outlook for Otto Perez
20 January 2012: Newly inaugurated President Otto Perez Molina faces a host of challenges, ranging from Guatemala's deteriorating security situation to a teetering public health system. However, Perez's leadership style, his Patriot Party's relative discipline, and a willingness among various parties in congress to cooperate on certain policy issues mean that the new president should be able to push some initiatives in the coming months. Perez will have to deal with a fragmented congress and a private sector heavily opposed to tax reform, but he looks likely to have support for a pending fiscal reform and an increase in mining royalty rates (though such plans may be diluted prior to passage). His security plans may take time to yield results, however, given the country's weak institutions and the strength of well-funded organized crime and drug trafficking groups.
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