Research Highlights
BRAZIL: Government poised to back tightening cycle, but fiscal policy sets up more difficult post-election adjustment
16 April 2013: With President Dilma Rousseff becoming more concerned with high inflation, should the Central Bank hike rates this week we expect the decision to be backed by other members of government. The move, however, will be complemented by further tax exemptions on products that impact inflation, which means this year's primary surplus is probably headed to under 2% of GDP. The combination of both should help keep inflation under 6%, but it is effectively creating conditions for a more difficult adjustment subsequent to next year's presidential election.
GERMANY: Weekend's party conventions fail to challenge Merkel's leadership
16 April 2013: Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) remains set to win the September elections and a grand coalition with the Social Democrat Party (SPD) is still the most likely outcome. The SPD's focus on greater social justice includes proposals for a minimum wage and higher taxes but does not significantly differentiate the party from Merkel's policies. The newly created anti-Euro "Alternative for Germany" party will create some noise, but their chances of getting into parliament remain low at this point.
MIDDLE EAST: Prospects of a jihadist belt increases risks to regional stability
15 April 2013: Al-Qaeda and its affiliates are seeking to exploit the conflict in Syria to build the foundations for an Islamic state in the Middle East. Radical Sunni groups in Iraq and Syria are strengthening mutual cooperation, in an effort to form a broader alliance in Iraq, Syria, Jordan, and Lebanon. US skepticism regarding arming Syrian rebels will increase but thus far Washington has not developed a regional strategy to counter Al-Qaeda.
H7N9/CHINA: Geographic expansion doesn't drastically alter dynamics of outbreak
15 April 2013: The dynamics of this outbreak have not shifted significantly, even with the geographic expansion and steady rise in cases. H7N9 discovery in Beijing will add attention to the outbreak and increase China's poultry industry losses. The Chinese response to date remains relatively transparent and engaged.
TURKEY/NUCLEAR ENERGY: Likely delays in nuclear talks signal continued dependence on imported gas
21 February 2013: In the race to build Turkey's second nuclear reactor in Sinop, China seems to be ahead of South Korea and Japan, both of whom find Turkey's conditions unacceptable. The process of selecting a vendor is likely to be delayed further, which will likely result in a higher call on natural gas to meet Turkey's surging demand for electricity. Ankara's unwillingness to backpedal from its stringent conditions - a build-own-operate (BOO) model with no state-backed financial guarantees - suggests nuclear energy is not a key priority for the government.
OIL: Saudi signaling of potential Q2 increase shows resolve to contain price escalation if demand growth accelerates
21 February 2013: The move by Saudi officials to telegraph a potential Q2 increase in production undermines the notion that the de facto Saudi price target has shifted sharply higher than the $100 per barrel cited by Oil Minister Ali al Naimi in 2012. In the wake of the output cut in December 2012, Saudi spare capacity, assuming the will to use it, should cover any likely acceleration in demand growth in 2013. Despite current tensions in the Middle East, it still does not appear likely that there will be a near-term geopolitical risk catalyst which will cause the risk premium to escalate sharply.
SOUTH AFRICA: A rough road for Zuma's National Development Plan
13 February 2013: President Zuma's 14 February State of the Nation Speech will emphasize the 'business friendly' National Development Plan (NDP), encouraging youth employment and rolling out the state's infrastructure program. The long-term NDP will run into shorter-term constraints, including contradictory policies, vested interests, funding gaps and social pressure for more rapid delivery. Union opposition will continue to stymie labor reforms--the ANC still needs COSATU to rally support ahead of elections in 2014.
2013年の世界10大リスク (Top Risks 2013 (Japanese))
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ユーラシア・グループの社長イアン・ブレマーおよびリサーチ主幹デービッド・ゴードンは「2013年の世界10大リスク」をこの度、発表しました。レポートでは、グローバルに活躍する投資家やその他ビジネス関係者を対象に、今年、地政学的に注視すべき世界の10大リスクについて分析しています。
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