Voters Oust Jakarta’s Reformist Governor

In the end, the checkered shirt was not enough.
 
After a tough re-election campaign in which religious and ethnic tensions came to the fore, Jakarta's Christian and ethnically Chinese governor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, known as Ahok, was ousted on Wednesday by former education minister Anies Baswedan.
 
Ahok, whose distinctive checkered shirt became a shorthand for his devoted following, enjoyed significant popular support within the city of Jakarta, as well as the confidence of his mentor, Indonesian Prime Minister Joko Widodo (known popularly as Jokowi). Following in Jokowi's footsteps as governor, Ahok had advanced bureaucratic and fiscal reforms to bring new solutions to chronic problems in one of the world's most overcrowded cities. He had also become the focus of intense criticism (and blasphemy charges) by Muslims who believe he had insulted their religion during a clumsily delivered campaign speech. 
 
The result reaffirms a trend of Islamization of Indonesian politics. Enough of Jakarta's voters, 85% of who are Muslim, were persuaded to vote based on the religion and ethnicity of the candidates rather than their relative reputation for competence or incorruptibility. That's not a positive sign for meritocratic government in one of the world's largest democracies.
 
Ahok's defeat is also a blow to Jokowi, though not one that will badly damage his chances of re-election in 2019. Ahok's loss also has implications for economic policy: namely, slowing infrastructure and business licensing reform in Jakarta; as well as a reorientation of national spending to address the concerns of the predominantly Muslim poor.
 
While Ahok's team is alleging that voter intimidation took place in parts of Jakarta, the election seems to have passed off without major disturbances. Authorities deployed some 60,000 security personnel to maintain public order during this high profile and controversial election. 
 
Looking forward, Baswedan won't likely reverse existing reforms, because a clear majority of Jakarta residents like them. But he will be less aggressive than Ahok in tackling corruption and shaking up the city's bureaucracy, which made the latter popular with residents but earned him the wrath of vested interests. That will weaken the positive example the capital city has been setting for the rest of the country in recent years. 
 
At the national level, Jokowi will intensify efforts to improve Indonesia's relatively limited social welfare provision. That will likely include cash transfers and bringing forward the full implementation of the National Social Security System, currently scheduled for 2019. Jakarta's new governor will likely use the city budget to build mosques and Islamic schools as well as invest in social housing programs and benefits for the predominantly Muslim poor – as Ahok had also promised to do had he been elected.


Peter Mumford covers Southeast Asia from Eurasia Group's Singapore office.