President-elect Donald Trump has a history of praising Russian President Vladimir Putin. And the fondness is mutual — Putin has regularly had kind words for Trump and today sent him a fulsome congratulatory note. At least for a number of months after inauguration day — and probably longer — we're headed for an easing of U.S.-Russian tensions.
Trump will defang most of the hot-button issues, for better or worse. He's very unlikely to retaliate for Russian cyber-intrusions — even after a classified briefing he refused to finger Russia. The cyber risk is now concentrated in the lame duck session, when President Barack Obama may well still inflict a modest cyber response on Russia. But the prospect of an escalating cyber war during the next administration is off.
On Russia's role in Syria, Trump's views have been ambiguous. He's called Russian strikes “a positive thing.” But Trump's also said Russia will get bogged down, and his general take is that the U.S. should allow the Syrian bad guys to fight each other. Trump has called for a U.S. participation in an enforced no-fly zone — clearly a flashpoint given Russian anti-air assets in the region. But broadly speaking, Trump is likely to try to work with Moscow on Syria and seek joint airstrikes against Al-Nusra and ISIS.
Trump will defang most of the hot-button issues, for better or worse.Regarding Ukraine, the president-elect has shown no strong interest in the country. He stated that Crimean residents would rather be part of Russia, and that he'd consider recognizing Crimea's new status. No lethal arms to Ukraine; that disappeared from the Republican platform. So a sea change is under way on Ukraine, as Trump will be inclined to ease sanctions on Russia. He's likely to try to cut a deal with Russia based either on the Minsk accord or a new paradigm. But Trump could just ease sanctions outright.
And then there are a set of great unknowns. The U.S. and Russia have a strong common interest in working together on arms control, terrorism and cyber norms. It's too soon to tell whether Trump will tackle these tough issues with any gusto.
Finally, the looming cloud over U.S.-Russian relations under Trump. The president-elect has a volatile personality, one that's been on display throughout the campaign. Putin's been playing “nice-nice” with him, but if and when that changes, Trump will punch back hard. Then we've got a problem.
This was also published on the PBS Newshour blog.
