What Asia's Looking for in the U.S. Election

   
Ian Bremmer: The United States is losing Asia. And certainly, from my trip to Singapore the other week, things felt...not great. Singaporeans are geopolitically savvy, concerned about the TPP—and Philippine President Duterte was in Beijing while I was in Singapore. But your view is things are not as bleak as the picture that is being portrayed right now by some in the region. Explain why.

Evan Medeiros: Well I take a very historic view of US involvement in Asia. It's a motion picture. It's not a snapshot. Duterte going to China doesn't look great, but look at the after effects. So he said a lot of big things but he hasn't practically ended any major military activities with the US. The alliance continues, bilateral military exercises are going forward, and of course, there is EDCA [Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement].


But there are also broader issues.  Trade between China and ASEAN [Association of Southeast Asian Nations] is down. It's down about six percent in the first six months this year and in all of 2015. The fact that China is not importing as many raw materials anymore hurts the big commodity exporters, such as Indonesia, Malaysia, and Australia. And then the fact that the Chinese are importing less intermediate products means that if you're Thailand or Malaysia, that hurts you as well. So I think when ASEAN looks at China over the long-term, they think economic uncertainty, potential source of economic volatility because the Chinese economy is going through a very difficult and challenging reform process, and you look at the South China Sea, which looks a little scary.

I take a very historic view of US involvement in Asia. It's a motion picture. It's not a snapshot.
IB: But you also have Duterte saying that he wants a bilateral relationship to handle the South China Sea issues, and not multilaterally with the United States and the countries in the region. That of course does undermine the United States' negotiation position, right?

EM: Actually, that's completely consistent with the US' efforts to make sure no ASEAN country feels coerced. In other words, bilateral negotiations or multilateral, both of them are fine. The whole issue is ASEAN countries for a long time did not want bilateral negotiations because they thought they would be disadvantaged, but if Duterte decides he wants to move in that direction, from a US perspective that's fine. In fact, it may facilitate a soft landing in the South China Sea issue.

IB: Over the next six months to one year, what is a plausible thing that you think could happen that would give you cause for concern that we are moving in that direction?
 
EM: So I think if the Vietnamese flipped, meaning they don't go forward with buying anything from the US after the arms embargo was lifted, they enter into bilateral negotiations with the Chinese on the South China Sea, and they look at expanding the military relationship with China. Now the reason I don't think that's likely is because we have to wait and see what happens with the US election.


But if Clinton gets elected, I think the entire region is going to exhale a huge sigh of relief. She was a beta member of Obama's Asia pivot team, she's well known in the region, well liked, she's well respected, her views on China and the South China Sea are very well liked. Of course everybody wants to know what's going to happen with TPP. That's definitely a big question that's out there. And then going forward, how is she going to be engaging with Asia? What does her team of advisors look like and will they make Asia as much of a priority as Obama?
              
If Clinton gets elected, I think the entire region is going to exhale a huge sigh of relief.
IB: At the end of the day, it makes sense for all of these ASEAN countries to pivot as much as possible between the U.S. and China, and yet their ability to do so over time, for different countries, can be constraining. One final thing I would mention is the broader question of what kind of political and economic models do these countries actually view as attractive for themselves? And I think for many of them, for a long time there was more of an aspiration that the American political model was something that they would've liked over time to have gotten more of. And I do believe that we're now living in a time where the average Chinese person living in China finds the Chinese political system and the Chinese leadership more attractive than the average American living in the United States. And that is known in Asia.

We're now living in a time where the average Chinese person living in China finds the Chinese political system and the Chinese leadership more attractive than the average American living in the United States. And that is known in Asia.

EM: That is a bold claim because for an average Chinese citizen, they have seen their political and civil liberties constrained substantially by Xi Jinping. Obviously the Americans haven't experienced that.

IB: There are always relative expectations. But the fact is we are living through an election cycle right now where a large minority and maybe a majority of the United States feels like the leadership is illegitimate. And that is true not just for the existing leadership but is true for whatever the election outcome is going to be, whether it is Trump, who is clearly seen as not fit remotely for purpose by a solid majority of the population, or it is Hillary, who many think probably should be in jail.

We're now living in a time where the average Chinese person living in China finds the Chinese political system and the Chinese leadership more attractive than the average American living in the United States. And that is known in Asia.
EM: But is that illegitimate? We continue to have a political system that is transparent and people are elected officials. So if you feel that they are illegitimate or you don't like them, you have regress through your ability to vote.

IB: I happen to believe that works better for me and for the American system but I think a lot of people don't.

EM: You would rather have the Chinese political system?

IB: No I didn't say the Americans would rather have the Chinese system. I said the average Chinese is happier with their system today than the average American is with the American system. That's important because when I go around the world and I talk to a lot of leaders, and they would actually say they believe that American representative democracy is no longer feeling very representative.

EM: China is a pretty corrupt place. The environmental pollution is pretty bad. They can't elect their leaders.


IB: It's so interesting to me that Xi Jinping is now talking about the Chinese dream as a big piece of where that country should be going and how Chinese should be aspirational about being able to develop themselves more effectively while so many Americans believe the American dream no longer applies to them.

EM: But do the Chinese people actually believe in the Chinese dream? That's the question. And has Xi Jinping delivered what he promised? I think those are big outstanding questions.

IB: For the United States as well?

EM: Absolutely.

IB: So my point here is that it would've been completely obvious 10 years ago if you were in Asia of how to answer that question and I think in 2016, it's not obvious how to answer that question. There's an actual debate and it's one that is easy to say works in America's favor if you're sitting in Georgetown or if you're sitting in Manhattan. It's a little harder in West Virginia or in Baltimore. And it's well near impossible if you're sitting in countries outside of the US where you don't know what to believe and you hear all sorts of different things. That piece of legitimacy that the Americans were able to simply presume is getting harder to proceed on.

…To be continued. Good conversation. My friend, Evan Medeiros, Managing Director of our Asia Practice.

EM: Thank you.

IB: Good seeing you.