Eurasia Group | SIGNAL: Trump goes ‘normal,’ the North Korea and Syria challenges, Iran election, Turkey’s referendum
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SIGNAL: Trump goes ‘normal,’ the North Korea and Syria challenges, Iran election, Turkey’s referendum

Eurasia Live
14 April 2017
2015.12.31.Erdogan.main
This week, Donald Trump makes foreign policy “normal,” Ahmadinejad wants to make Iran great again, and Erdogan puts his presidency on the line.

Join us to discuss Signal and the week's news live on Facebook at 9:00 am ET today (April 14). See you at facebook.com/eurasiagroup. If you miss it, you'll be able to watch the recap video there afterward. And if you're new to Signal, sign up here: http://www.eurasiagroup.net/signal.
 
Here we go!

The Noise This Week

Whether it's because he's learning quickly, or because he's merely interested in maximizing political advantage, Donald Trump has switched from black to white on a host of foreign policy positions this week. Syria, in particular, offered the new president a chance to rewrite the foreign policy narrative of his time in office, winning him praise for “normalizing” his foreign policy, especially when it comes to Russia. He has also flipped polarity on NATO (“no longer obsolete”), China's currency (“not currency manipulators”), and the U.S. Export-Import Bank (“actually it's a very good thing”), among others. The problem for traditionalists now pleased with his positions is that there's no guarantee the president's game of geopolitical spin-the-bottle will stop anywhere permanently.

At best, assessing how Trump will proceed on any given issue requires a version of Kremlinology: looking at who he's getting advice from, who's up and who's down in a given week. As of now, Trump's traditionalist advisers — Mattis, McMaster and Cohn in particular — are ascendant, but they could easily fall out of favor. Trumpology will be the game for the foreseeable future. And in that case, we here at Eurasia Group would like to offer our sympathies to the generation of Chinese political scientists now embarking on their PhDs.

Speaking of U.S. strategy, the Trump administration's new approach is to attempt to separate two major powers from their client states: China from North Korea and Russia from Syria. Neither of the pairs will split easy. China is willing to work with the West to moderate North Korea's aggression, but has shown little interest in fundamentally changing its relationship with Pyongyang. Similarly, Russia's large commitment to Syria is now the anchor of its regional strategy. These are, in other words, hugely complex foreign policy challenges that would be difficult for a fully staffed administration to accomplish. For an inexperienced presidency, these efforts are just as likely to fizzle in mixed messaging, if not, actively backfire, particularly on North Korea.


Elsewhere, two upcoming votes are getting interesting. In Iran, former hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad surprised observers there by registering as an official candidate in presidential elections due on May 19. Iran's supreme leader, who ultimately calls the shots in the country, had publicly told him not to run, but Ahmadinejad took that as just a suggestion, saying, “His advice does not prevent me from running.” Along with Ebrahim Raisi, another conservative presidential contender, there is now a healthy challenge to President Hassan Rouhani, whose candidacy is seen as a referendum on the Iran deal and the sluggish economy. The key date to watch is April 27, when the ruling clerics will decide who among the candidates may proceed. Stay tuned.

The other vote is in Turkey, where a referendum on Sunday will determine whether President Recep Tayyip Erdogan receives the enhanced presidential powers he has been seeking for some time. More on the consequences of that vote below, but for now the key question about Erdogan is: can he take no for an answer? This referendum is not his first bite at the apple — elections intended to give him the votes to make constitutional changes were inconclusive and had to be re-run. This week, an aide suggested that Turkey could re-do the vote if it failed. The vote is a new chapter for Erdogan, but certainly not the end of the story.

Self-Promotion Interlude: We're hiring!

Eurasia Group just opened applications for our annual political risk training program. These are paid positions in our research department for recent graduates. Look at our website for details, or feel free to ask current researcher and general Signal wizard Gabe!


Objectified
 
Your guide to the week's news through material goods

Cake: By now you've heard that Donald Trump passed the news of the Syrian missile strike to Chinese President Xi Jinping over dessert, specifically “the most beautiful piece of chocolate cake,” according to Trump. But what Trump did not tell Xi is that Mar-a-Lago only barely scraped by in its latest restaurant inspection, receiving a record 13 violations, according to the Miami Herald.

Eggs: It reportedly can cost as much as $150 to buy a dozen eggs in Venezuela, which is experiencing food shortages and hyperinflation. But that didn't stop protesters from throwing them at President Nicolas Maduro during a public appearance this week.

Napkin: In a move that would make a British imperialist blush, Trump national security aide Sebastian Gorka has proposed partitioning Libya. How did he do it? He drew the plan on the back of a napkin. Journalists immediately suggested FOIAing it.

Turntables: Turkmenistan's president, Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, is increasingly building a cult of personality around himself. (He's got a long way to go before he gets to rotating-golden-statue level.) His latest move was to make a song he performed the anthem of a sports competition his country is hosting. In the video of his performance, the 59-year-old autocrat does a classic DJ impersonation, holding one headphone up to his ear in front of turntables.

Your Weekly Bremmer



Watch the World in 60 Seconds from Tokyo.

Turkey's Executive Presidency: What's at Stake in Sunday's Vote
 
Eurasia Group's James Sawyer reviews the options
 
This Sunday, Turkish voters will go to the polls to vote on a series of constitutional reforms to grant sweeping new powers to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
On paper, the referendum is about a deeply controversial package of reforms that would deal the fatal blow to Turkey's barely functioning system of checks and balances. In a nutshell, it would give the office of the president vast powers over every other branch of the state. Once introduced, this dysfunctional new system would be extremely difficult to undo, and risks falling apart without a powerful leader like Erdogan who can hold the pieces together.
 
But to most voters who don't know the fine print of the reforms, the referendum is essentially a vote of confidence in Erdogan's ability to deliver stability and security. And for that reason, it looks marginally more likely that the referendum will be approved. This has been the cornerstone of Erdogan's electoral strategy: stoke controversy and political tensions, then portray yourself as the only politician strong enough to confront the challenges that ensue. Those who are willing to vote 'no' don't have a ready alternative to Erdogan's one-man rule, but might be willing to risk the country's political and economic stability on the way to finding one.
So what are the consequences for each result?
 
While problematic in the long-term, a 'yes' vote would allow for a marginal de-escalation of political risks in the immediate aftermath of the vote. Erdogan would have crossed the most challenging hurdle on his way to formally cementing his rule and might be able to relax a bit. But he would still need to win the next round of presidential elections in 2019 to formally acquire most of his new powers, meaning that he will likely remain in campaign mode until then. That means no easy end to the ongoing state of emergency, little space to de-escalate tensions with the Kurds, and a reluctance to wean the economy off extraordinary stimulus measures.
 
A 'no' vote would indicate that Turks are more willing to accept a bumpy-ride in the short-term than a Faustian bargain for stability. There is a high risk that Erdogan's next move would be to call early elections, to re-establish his mandate to rule and ideally wipe out one or both of the two smaller opposition parties along the way, given their precarious levels of support relative to the 10 percent threshold to enter parliament. This could dramatically strengthen the ruling Justice and Development Party's (AKP) share of parliamentary seats, allowing them to put constitutional reform back on the agenda. At worst, a botched early election could signal that Erdogan has finally lost his traction with the public, throwing into question the relatively stable government that has ruled Turkey for the last fifteen years.
 
- James Sawyer

Hard Numbers

€35 will get you a single room in a hostel being run out of the North Korean Embassy in Berlin.

8 of 27 cabinet ministers in Brazil were placed under investigation this week in connection with the country's Lava Jato corruption scandal.

24 of 27 cabinet ministers in Turkey can be seen sporting facial hair, with many of these newly mustachioed gentleman looking remarkably similar to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Before you ask, only one of the remaining three is a woman.

47 online defamation cases have been brought under Myanmar's telecommunications act since Aung San Suu Kyi took office, compared to only seven under military rule.

22 times more trade passes between China and Latin America today than in 2000. That compares to a 2-fold increase in trade between the region and the U.S. during the same period.

Words of Wisdom
“We should almost be thankful to Maduro for the events of recent days”
- Venezuelan opposition leader Henrique Capriles, who believes heavy-handed actions from President Nicolas Maduro and his allies have united the opposition.

Signal is written by Matt Peterson (@mattbpete) with editorial support from Gabe Lipton (@gflipton). Don't like what you read? Feel free to yell at us on Twitter or just reply to this email.
 
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