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Hong Kong Votes 

Eurasia Live 
24 March 2017
sdf Chinese president Xi Jinping shares a moment with Hong Kong Chief Executive-elect Carrie Lam during a visit to Hong KongÕs West Kowloon district, in Hong Kong June 29, 2017. REUTERS/Vincent Yu/Pool

[UPDATE: June 30, 2017 at 5:00 PM EST]

Carrie Lam is set to be sworn in as Hong Kong's chief executive in only a few hours. We think one of her biggest challenges in the coming years will be 'managing up' to Beijing, in particular on an issue called Article 23. That article, part of the territory's mini-constitution, calls on the government to enact anti-subversion legislation. But it's the third-rail of Hong Kong politics, due to concerns about free speech. The last time such a bill was tabled, nearly 15 years ago, it sparked massive protests and was eventually scrapped.
 
Now there are growing whispers that Beijing might force Lam to reintroduce legislation on Article 23, in part to clamp down on Hong Kong's pro-independence protesters. Lam herself prefers to kick Article 23 into the long grass. She has no popular mandate and wants to avoid controversial issues. But she has little leverage against Beijing. There's a real chance the mainland might force her to move forward on Article 23, whether she likes it or not.
 
The fundamental issue is that it's hard for Lam to maneuver in Beijing's ever-tightening grip. The mainland now regularly flexes its muscles on the issue of Hong Kong's autonomy. To take only the latest example, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman said today that the Sino-British Joint Declaration – a treaty in part outlining Hong Kong's relations with the mainland – is no longer applicable and “contain no limits on how Beijing manages Hong Kong.” The message is that Beijing can intervene harder if it wants. And it's a message directed at not only the opposition, but to Lam as well.

[UPDATE: March 27, 2017 at 1:35 PM EST] 

Carrie Lam received 777 votes in the Election Committee on Sunday, just short of Eurasia Group's baseline model prediction of 798 votes. Profanities and protests aired on live television during the public vote-counting at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre, while demonstrations erupted elsewhere in the territory. Hong Kong's social media scene has yet to settle on a single nickname for Lam involving her vote tally; her predecessor was famously known only as “Mr. 689.”

Attention will now shift to Lam's inauguration and the 20th anniversary of Hong Kong's handover on July 1, when some opposition parties have vowed large-scale protests. Just a day after the election, Hong Kong police charged at least nine pro-democracy activists with allegations related to the Umbrella protests of 2014, a move that will likely inflame the opposition. Chief executive-elect Lam is already off to a rocky start.



In the United States, many voters saw the 2016 election as a referendum on the 'establishment.' For voters in Hong Kong -- who head to the polls this Sunday to pick a new Chief Executive -- the 'establishment' is not just a political term, it is a reality that can be summed up in one word: Beijing.
 
 Hong Kong, which had been ruled by the United Kingdom for 100 years, joined China under the so-called 'One Country, Two Systems' model in 1997. The territory is permitted to manage its own political and economic affairs and it enjoys a relatively free market and strong rule of law, while Beijing manages defense, national security, and a handful of other areas. This 'autonomy lite' model, however, has its drawbacks, and it will come under considerable tension this Sunday when John Tsang, the preferred candidate for the vast majority of Hongkongers, heads off against Carrie Lam, Beijing's pick. (A third candidate, Woo Kwok-hing, is trailing by a large margin and isn't considered a realistic contender.)
 
Most analysts predict that Lam will win out in the end because Beijing controls the levers of power. But will we see another eruption of protests like the previous vote in 2014? Eurasia Group's Asia analyst Chris Beddor weighs in.
 
 [TRANSCRIPT]
 
What is Hong Kong's status within China today?
Hong Kong joined the mainland under the so-called One Country, Two Systems principle. The idea is that Hong Kong is allowed to maintain a separate economic and political system than the mainland – namely its free market economy and strong rule of law – while Beijing only manages foreign affairs, defense, and so forth.
 
But that system has been strained, especially since the mass street demonstrations in 2014. Many Hongkongers are keenly aware that Beijing appears to be infringing on the territory's rule of law and that the power of the Central Liaison Office, which is Beijing's most important representative in Hong Kong, appears to be growing. More broadly, many financial and business elites worry that the territory might be eclipsed by mainland financial centers such as Shanghai.
 
Elections are coming. Why are they important?
These elections are much more important than they seem. For starters, this is the first chief executive election since the mass street demonstrations in 2014. We've seen unexpectedly strong performance for the opposition in legislative elections and Election Committee elections last year.
 
Second this election could be the first that the frontrunner, currently Carrie Lam, is unambiguously not the preferred choice of the Hong Kong people. That would be John Tsang, the former financial secretary and a candidate that has said kind things about the opposition.
 
How can Beijing get the outcome it wants?
Beijing has two ways. First, it effectively controls the Election Committee. This is a 1,194 member body that elects the chief executive. It is comprised of 38 different sub-sectors representing different bodies, such as different professions, religions, officials and so forth. The opposition has a presence in this body, and they actually did quite well in recent elections, but the deck is heavily tilted in Beijing's favor.
 
Second, Beijing must appoint the chief executive chosen by the Election Committee. This gives the center a final veto. It also encourages fence-sitting voters in the Election Committee to vote for someone that they believe can make it through Beijing.
 
Is there a risk that Beijing candidate will lose the election?
That was a surprisingly complex question during the previous election in 2012. In this cycle, the answer is likely no.
 
Carrie Lam appears to have the clear support of the Central Liaison Office and the National People's Congress, which is China's parliament. There is an interesting subplot that Beijing has sent conflicting signals about its preferred candidate, but net-net it seems clear that Lam is favored.
 
If another candidate did manage to eek out a victory and was unacceptable to Beijing, they would simply not appoint him.
 
Is there a risk of major unrest in Hong Kong as a result of this election?
Yes. So, in the near term, her inauguration will be on July 1st, which is also the 20th anniversary of the territory's handover to mainland China. There are always protests on July 1, and it's reasonable to think this year's may be much larger than usual.
 
In the longer term, Lam's lack of a popular mandate may act as a force multiplier when protestors come out onto the streets. The opposition will relentlessly pound Lam as an illegitimate chief executive that was chosen against the clear will of the Hong Kong people. So it will exacerbate division within the territory.
 
There's also a campaign error that could come back to haunt her. During a debate last week, she said she would resign if “mainstream opinion makes me no longer able to continue as chief executive.” She has since walked that comment back. But if and when mass protests do erupt on her watch over a specific policy issue, the placards write themselves and it will set a clear objective for protestors.
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Christopher Beddor is an associate in the Asia practice, where he focuses on China's macroeconomic policies and structural reform.
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