For Indonesia's President, Success Means Survival

Survival
Many have failed to consider how tough it is for Jokowi to find his footing in the rough world of Indonesian national politics. While (mostly international) observers, market players and supporters saw him as a democratic miracle in 2014, he was actually a vehicle for his party to return to government. He had little clout and a minority in the Parliament to begin with, and he had to follow directions from party chief Megawati Sukarnoputri and face daily taunts from fellow party members who consider him a greenhorn politician from the sticks. The word 'impeachment' was even floated in the first few months. In the past two years, he has proven himself as a fast learner of politics who is willing to play the long game and build alliances while he continues to depend on his biggest asset, popular appeal, which no other Indonesian politician can match.
 
While the first year was a hazing period for the rookie who came out of the woods blistered but standing, the second year was a consolidation period in which he managed to draw in parties that once were in the opposition, especially the powerful Golkar. At the moment, he is backed by nearly 70% of the parliament, almost double of the support he had in 2014. And with Golkar's reelection endorsement in July, he is now poised to win the 2019 election and another five-year term. That is a great achievement for a furniture seller who five years ago thought being a mayor of a medium-size city in Central Java was the pinnacle of his life.

Jokowi's Track Record: Positive or Negative?

Our trajectories are neutral trending towards positive for short and long term. We will see incremental success and reforms will move forward but slow and sometimes frustrating many. Two steps forward, one step back or even two. But we need to be realistic that a miraculous take-off that some thought in 2014 was a pipedream. Jokowi needs to become a lot more powerful first before he can really call the shots. He can only make inroads in some areas now - infrastructure, fiscal, creative economy.

Even in those, he must continue to work with his political allies with their various interests. We will only see real progress in the areas of extractive industry, anti-corruption and human rights when he becomes strong enough to negotiate with the vested interests that resist reforms there. There won't be any take-off without him commanding his own ruling party. For years to come, Indonesia will be very internally focused because the president prioritizes the interests of the masses who vote for him and need to accommodate the interests of the political  elites who can ensure his survival.