Eurasia Group | Can the U.S. and Russia Save Syria?  
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Can the U.S. and Russia Save Syria?

Eurasia Live
14 September 2016 | 12:15 PM ET
assad 2
there's a deal... 
but will it hold?
What have the Americans and Russians agreed to? Why did they agree to work together in the first place? Can this deal end Syria's civil war? Will it save lives?

Eurasia Group Chairman Cliff Kupchan answers the big questions on Syria. 

Full transcript below. 

Despite the fact that this deal will not hold for very long, it's still worth doing. As long as it holds, people won't be killed the same way they're being killed. As long as it holds, people who are starving and have no medicine will get food and medicine. So it's not a panacea, it's not a silver bullet, it won't end the crisis, but the deal is worth it. And it is commendable. Besides basically agreeing to use their influence to start a ceasefire -- for two days, if it lasts, then for a week -- after that, they're going to coordinate strikes on al-Qaeda affiliates in Syria, and they're going to help get humanitarian aide to besieged cities.

For the U.S. this deal is really a plea by Secretary Kerry and President Obama to stop the barrel bombing, to stop the use of chlorine gas by Assad on Syrian citizens, to save lives and get food to suffering people, the U.S. sees it as the last best chance to save lives. The Russians -- what do the Russians want out of this? The Russians want help in fighting al-Nusra: the main dagger that's pointed towards President Assad, the main threat to the survival of President Assad. Secondly, the Russians want legitimation, outside legitimation of their effort in Syria. And there's nothing like the 'good old U-S-of-A' to bring that help.

I don't think that this deal's going to hold. I think there are many obstacles. The President of Syria, Bashar al-Assad, is not going to really stop fighting until the lines of control significantly shift and he controls most of western Syria. Moreover, the deal involves separating "terrorists" from "sane rebels." But they're co-located and they fight together...how are we going to separate them? I don't know. Third: the deal involves getting humanitarian aid to key Syrian cities, but neither side is guaranteed access to humanitarian aid groups to those cities.

More generally, the Russians have a really bad track record on their commitments. They tend to agree to ceasefires, like in Ukraine and Syria, and they don't, they just don't respect them. So all in, I don't expect this to get us all that far.
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